But is Ukraine a priority for anyone other than
Ukraine itself?
Now
perhaps Ukraine is of importance to U.S. Vice President Josef Biden as he is
purported to talk to President Petro Poroshenko four to six of times per
month. But the rationale for why he is so interested is to be
determined. But is his interest as a representative of the US government or is it to foster the relationship with Ukraine as he prepares
for his life after the vice presidency?
It appears that Hillary Clinton is a lock for the 2016 Democratic presidential
nomination so why shouldn’t Biden leverage the
relationships his sons have as employees of a
privileged Cypriot registered, Ukraine energy company as he prepares for his
next endeavor. The reason we bring up Biden is he is the
only kind of example, an individual example, of support we can
find for Ukraine. There appear to be many individual interests in Ukraine.
However the key
question should be like this: “Is Ukraine as a sovereign, independent
state relevant to any US/EU sovereign interest that will offer
material support to Ukraine to re-build their economy, to avoid default on debt
obligations, to modernize the military-Intelligence complex, to
enable a corruption free as possible operating environment and
to support Ukraine sovereignty protection efforts including re-claiming
the Crimea?”
Well the answer is a
resounding NO!
Obama made it clear to Poroshenko on his
recent visit to the United Sates that Ukraine is not a priority. Ukraine is not a
U.S. Department of Defense priority as you play no role in the global anti-terrorism efforts, is not a member of NATO, and offers little or
nothing in the way of advancing global economic stability.
There are no
explicit nor implicit mentions of Ukraine if one studies US strategic security documents starting with the January 2012 guidance that
prioritizes efforts to Asia Pacific, the Middle East and counter-terrorism for an upcoming period of troop downsizing and budget
cuts.
Any recent additional funding, commitment to military cooperation efforts or
equipment transfers between the US and Ukraine are a placeholder at best and a
false promise of hope at worst. And if you review
EU/NATO documentation we believe that you will come to a similar
conclusion. Not even China, a country that is investing everywhere, appears to
have significant direct interest in Ukraine.
Can you blame the US
for its position? Can you blame anyone but yourselves? What
is Ukraine’s value proposition to anyone?
You’ve had the same 23 years of freedom from the USSR as Poland, the Baltic States, Czech Republic,
Georgia and the Balkans but look where you are compared with
these countries on any relevant measure. What is your excuse?
You have a
highly educated population sitting on the sixth largest, richest arable
land mass on the globe, substantial off-shore energy assets. technology
acumen, geographic positioning at the center the economically re-emerging
Eurasian land mass, a rich cultural heritage that aligns you with both east and
west, and a country full of professional military cadre. Yet, with all
these advantages you perpetuate an overly corrupt operating
environment, own an empty treasury supposedly on the verge of
defaulting on debt obligations, field a disorganized security & intelligence structure dependent on ethically challenged militia
elements & which is unable to leverage a highly desirable defense technologies program, and act as though the world owes you support
just because. You definitely don’t offer any value in military or
counter-terrorism efforts in your current condition.
We see the value in
Ukraine and your citizens on many levels. But looking from the
outside in we don’t see where Ukrainians see any value in themselves. By
extension in your current state Ukraine offers little or nothing in the way of
a smart investment except on an individual or corporate level.
So Ukraine, how are
you going to change your value proposition from a proxy for US/EU-Russian
military & economic counter-measures to a sovereignty that inspires other
nations to support your efforts to join the league of independent, progressive
nations?
Joseph LeGasse is an intelligence and defense expert and Sergei
Konoplyov is director of the Harvard Eurasia Security Program.
