As the United States recovers from the shock and surprise of Donald Trump’s surprise victory, the rest of the world also wonders what Trump’s election means for American foreign policy. Will he follow-up on some of his more controversial campaign statements – such as demanding allies “reimburse” the U.S. for defending them or end the American commitment to NATO– or will Trump govern as the pragmatist some analysts insist he really is?
One country that may have to contend with a change in American policy is Ukraine. During the campaign, Trump repeatedly praised Russia’s strongman President Vladimir Putin, musing that Washington and Moscow should join forces in Syria to combat Islamic State while also suggesting he might accept Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea. This leads leading Ukrainian journalist Kateryna Kruk to worry Ukraine will end up as the “wedding present” in a new American-Russian “marriage.” Ukrainians’ fears are legitimate, but the country’s leaders can still develop a strategy to manage risks emanating from the unpredictable behavior of a President Trump. Here’s how:
Don’t Panic
While this may sound counterintuitive given everything Trump has said so far, the reality is that governing is very different than campaigning. Since his surprising win, Trump has already backtracked on a number of his campaign statements. For example, he promised to fully repeal President Barack Obama’s signature health reform Obamacare, but after meeting Obama he suggested he would keep some aspects of it. Likewise, his team has carefully walked back other campaign rhetoric related to immigration and border security. Trump may well reevaluate his position on US-Russian relations once he assumes Office as well.
Furthermore, many of Trump’s senior advisers and possible cabinet picks also take more hawkish positions on Russia than Trump. Vice President-elect Mike Pence’s statement on Russia during the vice presidential debate – “After the Russian reset, the Russians invaded Ukraine and took over Crimea. The small and bullying leader of Russia is now dictating terms to the United States” – is one notable example of a senior official in a Trump administration likely to push for a more aggressive policy towards Russia. Likewise, a number of candidates reportedly under consideration for senior administration foreign policy roles – including former Representative Newt Gingrich, former U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton and 2012 Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney – have expressed strong support for Ukraine.
Work Capitol Hill
While President Petro Poroshenko should make every effort to meet and cultivate Trump, Kyiv’s diplomats and officials should also make a concerted effort to develop deeper relationships with leading Ukraine-supporters and Russia hawks on Capitol Hill. Republican Senator John McCain – who stood with protesters on Maidan during the height of demonstrations – recently warned Trump not too cozy up to Putin. McCain and his fellow Republican Russia-hawk Lindsey Graham will also lead a Congressional delegation to visit Ukraine and Georgia prior to Trump’s inauguration, and in January the duo plan to hold a series of hearings on Russia’s cyberattacks and information warfare. Kyiv should also do everything in its power to develop a close relationship with Republican Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Corker, who rode point on a Senate bill to contain Russia after Moscow’s annexation of Crimea.
Support for Kyiv also extends to the House of Representatives as well. Republican House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Republican House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry supported arming Ukraine, and in 2015 the full House passed a defense policy bill which advocated supplying Kyiv with weapons. In sum, Ukrainian officials should realize they possess a deep wellspring of sympathy on Capitol Hill.
Intensively cultivate Europe
Kyiv should also redouble efforts to deepen bilateral relationships within the EU. Poland and Ukraine for example share a mutual fear of Russia, and Warsaw has arguably been Kyiv’s strongest supporter within the EU. Moreover, according to Senior Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations Gustav Gressel, Kyiv should also step up efforts to cultivate relationships with Nordic countries such as Sweden, Finland and Denmark – all of whom Moscow has threatened at one point or another.
Deepen and expand anti-corruption reform
This is the single most important step Ukraine can take right now. While Ukraine can only influence the United States’ and Europe’s foreign policy to a limited extent, the pace of reform remains fully within Kyiv’s control. The deeper and faster reforms are enacted, the more stable Ukraine will become and the greater the likelihood that its break from Russia and turn towards the West will become irreversible. While the 2004 Orange Revolution produced hope for change, reform faltered, ultimately leading to the election of the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych’s election. Ukraine must not repeat this pattern.
While confronting corruption remains an ongoing challenge, Ukraine has nevertheless achieved some notable successes it can build on. Since Euromaidan new anti-corruption institutions such as the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine and a Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor have been created, while groundbreaking reforms in government procurement and health care demonstrate represent important success stories as well.
Most importantly, Ukrainian reformers just achieved their most significant anti-corruption victory since EuroMaidan. Despite ongoing resistance from Ukraine’s political class, Ukrainian civil society reformers succeeded in forcing the government to launch an e-declaration system requiring officials to comprehensively disclose their financial assets. The system went live on Sept. 1, and by Oct. 31 over 50,000 top officials had submitted their declarations. While media focused on the “who owns what” aspect of the news, the real story was reformers’ very success in forcing Ukraine’s corrupt political class to finally reveal the extent of their wealth. Building on the success of e-declaration by strengthening and empowering the NABU, creating a new anti-corruption court and cleansing the judicial system are key next steps Ukraine should now take. All of these reforms will face resistance from various vested interests, but they are all critical to ensuring Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and independence.
While a President Trump is now a reality for Kyiv, Ukraine’s fate remains well within its control.
