New York Times: Ukraine's risky bet - Nov. 04, 2013

New York Times: Ukraine’s risky bet

Published Nov. 4, 2013 at 8:30 am

MOSCOW — Ukraine is leaving Russia for Europe. That’s what many observers see as the likely consequence of the Association Agreement that Ukraine and the European Union are expected to sign at a summit meeting in Vilnius at the end of this month. But those who expect Ukraine to embark on a fast transformation should not be complacent. Bitter disputes persist within the Ukraine-E.U.-Russia triangle, complicated conflicts that are about selfish interests, not universal values.

The breakup of the Soviet Union was not a single explosion. It remains a slow-motion, centrifugal process, with pieces of the Russian empire drifting farther and farther away from Moscow as others remain caught in the Kremlin’s orbit. The Baltic states were the first to jump on the E.U. and NATO bandwagons. Other Soviet republics stayed in the Commonwealth of Independent States, a loose association formed in place of the U.S.S.R., but are pulled westward or eastward, Europe and China being the magnets. The republic of Georgia is no longer part of any Russian-led bloc. Ukraine is expected to follow suit, and Moldova has also been invited to sign an E.U. accord.