(Part one of a two part series.)
Terminology matters. Minsk is not a “ceasefire agreement” – Minsk is a framework to return Ukrainian sovereignty over temporarily occupied parts of Ukraine. It goes without saying that this goal will never be achieved unless the parties to the agreement are serious about upholding commitments made in Minsk.
Point One, Ceasefire.
The ceasefire element of Minsk is point number one. In any peace deal the first essential stage is to stop the fighting, Russia and the proxies they control have singularly failed to do this, Russia could, in a heartbeat, order the forces fighting in and against Ukraine to cease military operation. Russia could, in a heartbeat, order the withdrawal of Russian military assets from Ukrainian territory. The fact that Russia refuses to do this is clear proof that Russia presently ignores not only the letter, but also the spirit of Minsk.
The failure to live up to commitments in an agreement designed to bring peace back to Ukraine is not, however, limited to a failure to order and observe the ceasefire element of the deal, Russia regularly and routinely flouts many other parts of Minsk.
Point Two, pull out of heavy weapons.
The letter of Minsk requires both sides to pull heavy weapons back from the contact line. Rather than removing heavy weapons from the front, Russia has continued to insert such weaponry into the occupied areas of the Donbass, this is most certainly a violation of the spirit of Minsk, and the rationale behind this point. By throwing more killing machines across the 450 km of the Ukrainian – Russian border that is currently controlled exclusively by Russia, Russia is laying preparations for more war.
The amount of Russian military equipment known to be in Donbass exceeds that of the armies of many European countries. According to information gathered by the Ukrainian government there are presently 680 tanks, a combined 1,170 pieces of artillery and multiple rocket launcher systems, 1,250 armoured fighting vehicles, and 550 anti-aircraft warfare units. If, technically, they are outside of the 50 70 or 140 km withdrawal boundaries mandated by Minsk (and certainly not all are, as reported regularly by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission) then Russia would be respecting the letter of Minsk, but with this kind of military equipment present inside of Ukraine in such numbers Russia is certainly not abiding by the spirit of Minsk.
There’s an often-cited argument that Ukraine does not do enough to prove that this military equipment is Russian in origin. That’s pretty disingenuous, especially when the goal is to try and end bloodshed. This point cannot get bogged down in hypotheticals and “maybe” arguments. “Maybe this kit was captured from Ukraine?” “Maybe this stuff was purchased in an army surplus store?” Such claims are simply not credible. Turn the burden of proof on Russia, for that is certainly where this equipment comes from. Look at this question with a bit of common sense, where else does this massive amount of military hardware come from?
Point three. Allow the OSCE SMM to have unimpeded access to do their jobs.
Russia fails here too. OSCE drones are shot at. OSCE members are shot at. An unarmed OSCE observer, Joseph Stone, an American citizen, was killed. The OSCE SMM are regularly denied access to certain areas and while their mandate and communication style requires them to call on “all sides” to allow for the free movement of members of their mission, in reality 80 percent of the restrictions of movement come when the Monitors are on the territory of Ukraine not controlled by the government. OSCE Monitors are increasingly being threatened with violence.
The letter and spirit of Minsk are both being violated, on a daily basis, and nobody is doing a thing about it.
Point Six. The release of all hostages and illegally held persons.
At least 144 Ukrainians are being held by the self-appointed “authorities” of the occupied territories. They should all have been released a long time ago. As well as military prisoners of war, the kangaroo courts of the “D/LNR” have also locked up anyone dissenting to their rule. The case of scholar Igor Kozlovsky, who had remained in the occupied areas to look after his disabled son, is one example of civilians being incarcerated too.
Yet again, Russia simply ignores the letter and spirit of Minsk.
Point Seven. Humanitarian aid should be handled by international mechanisms.
Since the start of the conflict Russia has been sending convoys of white lorries across the border into Ukraine. To date this has happened 68 times. These convoys are not inspected. These convoys are a violation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. They are not humanitarian in nature. They’re a blatant middle finger to point seven of the deal intended to return peace to Ukraine.
Point Ten. Pull out of all foreign armed formations.
Russia is doing the exact opposite. The excuse that these are just “volunteers” “following the call of their heart” has worn thin. They are Russian citizens, crossing the Russian border, either duped by propaganda or paid mercenaries or serving Russian soldiers obeying orders. But just say, for the sake of argument, they were merely “volunteers.” Could the Russian authorities stop them from crossing into another country to engage in armed conflict? Of course, in a heartbeat, if there was an ounce of desire to do so.
The Devil is in the Details.
It’s simply not enough to look at what’s happening in eastern Ukraine and say “another attempted ceasefire has failed.” It’s time for the international community to stand back and take stock. Russia is flouting almost all of the obligations agreed to in Minsk. If they continue to do so there will be no peace in Ukraine. Putin is laughing at the fact that he’s able to get away with these breaches of Minsk, which, combined, create the roadmap to peace.
Part Two of this two part series will focus on what Ukraine needs to do, but without the prerequisite actions from Russia, Ukraine will never be able to fulfill their obligations. While Ukrainian soldiers are sitting in trenches defending their homeland and while Russian soldiers and mercenaries are being sent back across the borders in body bags to be buried in secret – Russia is ignoring all parts of the agreement that is supposed to bring an end to this war.
Insisting that Russia comply with all parts of Minsk is a step in the right direction. Recognising that Russia is flouting all of the steps towards peace is a step in the right direction.
Vladimir Putin’s recent comment about allowing an armed UN peacekeeping mission into Ukraine are a smoke screen, an attempt to distract the conversation about Ukraine away from what should be the focus of the discussion, there already is a peace agreement, and it is being frequently violated.
Vladimir Putin wants the world to think he’s putting forward a peace plan, the evidence of the last three years (and before) shows that Russia’s President is, in fact, a war monger.
