Frank-Walter Steinmeier is known to all or almost everyone, but with his famous formula it is much more complicated.
Recent discussions around it, in terms of “betrayal” or “victory,” have shown that professional and political explanations for the issue, around which the spears break, are lacking.
It should be clearly understood that the formula is not a road map for Minsk implementation or a de-escalation plan. It concerns only one item of the Minsk Arrangement: the so-called “special status” of the ORDL (temporarily occupied and uncontrolled territories of Ukraine). These are features of local self-government. This is fundamental.
In order to understand why this formula appeared, it is necessary to remember the events of the end of 2014. After Sept. 5, 2014, when the Minsk Protocol was agreed, the Ukrainian side worked on its implementation, took steps towards de-escalation. The parliament adopted a law on the features of local self-government in ORDLO. Even then, we have identified the districts for holding local elections, appointing the December 2014 elections themselves.
However, holding democratic elections in the ORDLO – that is, those that would be held in accordance with Ukrainian law and OSCE standards – was not part of the Kremlin’s plans. In violation of the agreements, the Russian Federation has decided to hold its “fake” elections a month earlier, in November.
Thus, the process was thwarted by Moscow’s efforts.
Now back to the Steinmeier formula. It emerged as an answer to the question of when the “special status” of the ORDLO should be given and (which is fundamentally important!) Under what conditions. This formula was proposed by our German and French partners. In the simplest terms, it can be formulated as: “special status through fair, democratic elections in accordance with OSCE standards.”
Not through a farce organized by Russia, but through real elections.
The “Steinmeier formula” itself cannot be considered in isolation from other important terms of the Minsk agreements. I repeat, it is only one component of the overall process.
The key is that elections should be held to OSCE standards – so it is important for us to keep this component of the formula. By these standards, they cannot be conducted in the presence of foreign troops and mercenaries. Proper safety conditions are required.
This means that the security conditions of Minsk, including the withdrawal of troops, weapons and mercenaries, must first be fulfilled. In addition to security conditions, the key is the modality of holding elections (that is, in the translation from the diplomatic language, their parameters) – the role of our CEC (election commission), media rights, the participation of internally displaced persons and Ukrainian parties in this process.
In all these matters, by the way, the OSCE standards for fair democratic elections are sufficiently clear.
They are clear and in accordance with Ukrainian legislation – pay attention to article 10, paragraph 4 of the law on the features of local self-government, which the Russian Federation does not like. It also refers to the freedom of election campaigning, the access of ORDLO residents to the Ukrainian media, the security conditions, and much more.
In this sense, the “Steinmeier formula” is not something threatening.
But the risks, of course, are still there, and they are very significant.
In my opinion, we cannot in any case allow the “Steinmeier formula” to be sold to us as a complete settlement plan. The Russian Federation will also do everything to blur the notion of OSCE election standards – it will prove that they are of fundamental importance, “not so important” and so on.
And, of course, the key is how to create the right security conditions for fair and democratic elections there.
If the Russian Federation insists that Ukraine will not be able to enter the territories before the elections, then who will ensure proper preparation for them and control the security during the voting and in the transition period? The OSCE SMM will not be able to do this – neither by its mandate nor by its number.
In answering this question, we have offered a full-fledged UN mission with military, police and civilian components. And its main element should be the international administration!
If there is another creative and effective solution, I will only be glad to hear it.
Now – on the idea of holding local elections at the same time throughout Ukraine.
The idea of synchronizing elections in itself is adequate here. Sooner or later, we will have to do this if we want a real reintegration of the Donbas. The key problem is whether there will be enough time left before the 2020 elections to create all the necessary conditions for holding elections in the Donbas in accordance with OSCE standards and Ukrainian legislation? I personally have doubts.
Do not forget the legal component of the issue. The current law on local elections does not take into account the “peculiarities” of the situation in these territories, including the participation of internally displaced persons. It will be necessary to adopt a law on the specifics of the application of electoral law in the ORDL.
And finally.
So far, we have heard Russia’s demands for consideration at the Normandy format summit, but nothing prevents us from putting forward our own.
If indeed it is necessary to agree on a “Steinmeier formula” that is directly related to elections, it would be possible at least to clearly and clearly identify for everyone the key parameters and the security preconditions for their conduct.
We need red lines, predefined by the Ukrainian side. And we also need our own requirements, which we will promote (because let’s not forget about the elections in our territory!).
In their presence, Russia will find it much more difficult to manipulate the situation.
Pavlo Klimkin was minister of foreign affairs of Ukraine between 2014 and 2019. His opinion is translated and republished here with permission. The original article published in the Ukrainian language by European Pravda can be read here.
