Putin and Yanukovych: mirror opposites
Vladimir Putin and Viktor Yanukovych, Russia and Ukraine, perhaps the Yin and Yang of the post-Soviet environment, the struggle between them determining the logic and direction of its further development. The president of Ukraine and Russian prime minister are two leaders, who prefer a tough’ style of management and centralized decision-making – albeit centralized around themselves and their inner circle.
This is, perhaps, the only resemblance between the two of them yet both have it within their grasp to change the course of history for better or for worse.
Today Putin is trying to create a new version of the USSR in the form of a Eurasian Union in order to rebuild what he believes is lost Russian prestige. The key question is whether such authoritarian leaders as Putin, Yanukovych, Oleksander Lukashenko and Nursultan Nazarbayev will be able to coexist within a single union, and to reach the inevitable compromises that may well see the erosion of some of their power and national interest to a common cause, albeit that this common cause has yet to be defined
Experiments with ‘ghostly’ opposition
Both leaders seem to have a problem with effective oppositions and have gone out of their way to suppress almost all dissent. Both countries have very weak opposition movements. In Russia, the issue is personified by the former owner of Yukos, Mikhail Khodorkovsky, whilst in Ukraine it is the former owner of United Energy Systems Yulia Tymoshenko.
In this case Putin has demonstrated his political awareness as he made his point by choosing to make an example of an oligarch who dared to question him. Yanukovych did the opposite and decided to make his example possibly the most famous female politician in Eastern Europe. If the Ukrainian puppet system of justice keeps Tymoshenko in prison for the long-term then Yanukovych will most likely be totally isolated by the West and become the classic post-soviet authoritarian leader with a skeletons in his closet. Skeletons that may well make him vulnerable to manipulation even by senior members of his own party.
Tymoshenko is likely to turn into a political ghost as if she where to be released she would undoubtedly become Yanukovych’s nemesis and would pursue him if only for revenge. However neither she nor Khodorkovsky have ever offered the public any real alternative in the form of new policies and ideas as their aspirations are more to do with the love of power than love of the people.
Serving plutocracy
Putin and Yanukovych are similar in that they both came to power with the blessing of big business. The example of the current Prime-Minister of Russia has proved that oligarchs cannot always count on the obedience of their elected leaders. The same scenario is likely to play out in Ukraine. It is not surprising that Ukraine is largely being governed by five industrial and financial groups. Although Yanukovych has been trying to distance himself from these groups and has even made some steps similar to those made by Putin, those which forced many Russian oligarchs to sell-up their assets and leave the country. Perhaps this is why Ukrainian experts report that local oligarchs are concerned by the unpredictability of Yanukovych’s actions.
Monopoly of governance
It is hard to deny that Putin’s model of governance has been one of inspirations for President of Ukraine. A vertical power structure is based on one political party establishing a monopoly on power. ‘United Russia’ and Party of Regions closely correlate for this reason. Zero party competition in Ukraine has lead to a total degradation of the party system. The situation is compounded by a disunified opposition. The opposition has proved utterly incapable of fulfilling its obligations to the public by developing an alternative plan for the governing of the state in the interests of the people. Both Putin and Yanukovych are facing some negative consequences as a result of their monopolisation of power as the people become increasingly annoyed and rise in protest. This might be the reason why both Putin and Yanukovych have started to distance themselves from their governing parties. Surprisingly, Putin recently announced at a party meeting that the current President Dmitry Medvedev would lead the ‘United Russia’ political party at the next parliamentary elections.
Community spirit
One more common feature for both Putin and Yanukovych is their continually decreasing popularity amongst their respective peoples.
Putin’s ratings in Russia have dropped almost twice compared to those at the time of his last presidential campaign. Today only 44.5% of the Russian people support his policies compared with the 70% which voted for him in 2004. According to social surveys, 30% of respondents do not approve Putin’s current policy, compared to 24% and 20% during the first and second presidential terms, respectively. Moreover only 25.4% of Russians say that they sympathize with Putin as a person contrasted with 70% in March 2004(1).
According to a recent social survey only 10 percent of the population support Yanukovych, 14 percent Tymoshenko, 11 percent Arseniy Yatsenyuk and a little over 5 percent Vitali Klitschko. Thirty percent of Ukrainians do not approve of Yanukovych’s actions whilst almost 55 percent of respondents do not support the president at all.
Conclusions
Apart from the numerous differences in experience, education, values, professional ability and personal character, Yanukovych and Putin have one big thing in common – their official duties. The Russian leader plans to return to Presidential office hoping for a legacy associated with the great successes of the Russian Federation. For this reason he has introduces an ambitious geopolitical project to rival, in Putin’s mind alone, the European Union. He wants to be remembered by history and posterity as a true champion of Russian power and national prestige.
The president of Ukraine has got some very important decisions to make. And time is drawing on. Will he preserve the integrity of Ukraine by opting to follow the way of slow and steady development through reforms, or will he waste this opportunity?
The major question is how Yanukovych and Putin will manage to combine their missions into new Ukrainian-Russian relationships or whether they are wise enough to rise above their personal ambitions?
People First Comment: At the moment there is one further thing that both Putin and Yanukovych have in common and that is their total lack of understanding of the concept, principles and practice of democracy. In this regard both have the same delusional belief that they know better that the populations they seek to rule. Whilst Putin has very adroitly engineered his position and power within flexible interpretations of Russian law Yanukovych has simple trampled the Ukrainian constitution, law and parliamentary procedure in order to get his way.
Putin’s position has only been accepted by the Russian people because their wealth has been rising. They have in fact been bought off by energy money but this cannot continue for ever. Russian GDP is now over $10,000 per person but this may be hard to sustain in the long term without systemic economic change which will give power back to the middle classes and change the whole Russian political dynamic. In Ukraine the real GDP figure is somewhere around $2,500 once you strip out the wealth of the top 100 and this may prove to be Yanukovych’s Achilles heel as there is only so far that you can push a repressed people before the bite back and hard.
Another difference between the two leaders is that Putin still enjoys the loyalty and support of his military, police and security services despite the problems in the Caucasus. The same cannot be said for Yanukovych as whilst Putin really is the strong man of the East, Yanukovych’s position looks weaker by the month. The Orange revolution for all its faults did prove one major difference between Russia and Ukraine in that both the Ukrainian military and the security services sided with the people against the authorities whilst their counterparts in Russia have always been staunchly loyal to the leadership.
Furthermore Putin’s pressure on the Russian oligarchs was designed to bring them into line and to secure certain assets under State control. Yanukovych does not have that power or loyalty and support within his own administration let alone the ruling elite. He is now faced with some of his leading supporters selling off their Ukrainian assets and moving offshore, one can only assume to get away from his grasp. Furthermore there is considerable rumour of disquiet in his camp over who is getting the lion’s share of the spoils of government, something that is not an issue in Russia.
Finally we have to take into consideration the fact that it is common knowledge that Putin is no fan of Yanukovych and will do all in his power to destabilize both his position and his country simply because he has the power to do so and a relatively free hand internationally. Yanukovych can only dream of such power.
However as the world moves every closer to universal democracy both leaders are relics of the past. Yanukovych is probably the last of the Soviet Era leaders in Ukraine simply because Mother Nature has a way of terminating even the most oppressive of leaderships and it is unlikely that Putin’s last ride will be at all comfortable as the Russian people begin to demand progress and liberty over stagnation and control.
Viktor Tkachuk is chief executive officer of the People First Foundation, which seeks to strengthen Ukrainian democracy. The organization’s website is: www.peoplefirst.org.ua and the e-mail address is: [email protected]
