On Oct. 11, Judge Rodion Kireyev delivered a guilty verdict, according to which she is to be imprisoned for seven years and barred from public office for a further three years following her release. In addition, the ruling dictates that she must reimburse Naftogas Ukraine $190 million in losses for which the charges designate her as responsible.

Ivan Derevianko, head of the investigation department of the Security Service of Ukraine, informed the public on Oct. 13 that the Security Services had opened a new criminal case against Tymoshenko, as president and de facto owner of United Energy Systems of Ukraine between 1995 and 1997, for imposing the corporation’s financial obligations to the Russian Defense Ministry, valued at $405.5 million, upon the national budget.

President Viktor Yanukovych has noted that the Pechersk court judgment was not final and there would be forwarding of the trial to the Court of Appeal of Ukraine. The president mentioned that the case was originally initiated by the previous government. Prime Minister Mykola Azarov however, believes that the new criminal case against Tymoshenko is well-founded. The lawyers and fellow party members already expect the European Court of Human Rights to become the last instance in Tymoshenko’s case.

Arseniy Yastenyuk, leader of the ‘Front Zmin’ political party, recently noted that Tymoshenko’s imprisonment seriously jeopardizes Ukraine’s hopes for European integration.

With EU integration plans in tatters the governing authorities may choose to drift closer to Russia and its subsidiary integration projects. However, such a direction does not fit the aspirations of the majority of the Ukrainian people. As 43.7 percent of Ukrainians are committed to European integration while only 30.5 percent of Ukrainians support the Russian led Customs Union. The data suggests that the pro-Europe will only increase as there are twice as many supporters of EU integration among young people than among senior citizens.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2011/10/11/6654489/

http://www.unian.net/ukr/news/news-462436.html

http://www.epravda.com.ua/news/2011/10/14/301930/

People First Comment: Not content with blowing off one foot the administration seem intent to take aim at the other… The new case lodged is almost the same as the one closed by the Russian courts in 2001. In 2003 the Russian security services finished their extensive investigation of the Russian military and found that there had been no irregularities and therefore no case to answer. In 2006, the case was dismissed by the Ukrainian Constitutional court. Furthermore this case is almost 15 years old therefore the authorities really have scraped the barrel here. Tymoshenko is probably the most investigated Ukrainian in history and in every case no prosecutor has ever been able to pin any corruption or embezzlement charges against her so she is either brilliant at hiding her tracks or… she might actually be innocent.

The government are claiming that this new case is a purely legal matter for the courts to decide yet both the Head of the National Security Council and the prime minister are on record saying that the there is a strong case that should go to court. The question is; how do they know the strength of the case if it is a purely legal matter? Their comments are prejudicial to any fair trial as it would appear that they must have seen the prosecutions documentation in order to comment. One has to ask why?

The question now is not whether Tymoshenko is guilty or not as it has moved on from there. The question now is about the whole future of Ukraine as a democratic country. Ukraine may be the second largest country on the European continent but it is also the poorest and virtually bankrupt. It has no financial or political clout in the world and now even the national dignity is at stake.

Fighting corruption or just consolidating finances?

Since the start of October, the Ministry of Finance has ground to a halt as a result of continuing inspections in the preparation for the 2012 state budget required for parliamentary approval next year. Experts claim that the administration is looking for a pretext under which to fire current finance minister. One unconfirmed explanation is that a new vice prime minister is soon to be appointed who will also take charge of the Ministry of Finance and receive additional control of the Tax Administration and Customs Service. Valeriy Khoroshkovsky, current head of the Security Service, is considered to be one the lead candidates for vice prime minister. Effectively the Ministry of Finance could be well positioned in fighting corruption at the highest level. In reality, though, Ukraine is undergoing a centralization of finances in the wake of an increasing number of economic problems.

Azarov spoke out against any staff changes in the near future, explaining that it is unreasonable to make such appointments while the authorities are working on the new budget and preparing for the next visit of IMF mission to Ukraine. By the end of October, the inspections will be complete and we will be able to see just how efficient the Ministry of Finance has been in implementing the governmental and presidential reforms. It will become clear whether the government is really committed to fighting corruption or is once again attempting to restructure the nation’s financial flow.

http://www.glavred.info/archive/2011/10/07/092227-5.html.

People First Comment: Why all the intrigue? If the minister is not doing his job then he should simply be replaced and that should an end to the matter. To seek to achieve the same by indirect means really draws into question the claim that the President’s vertical structure is all powerful. The problem is that in reality the vertical power structure is a very delicate balancing act between the five or so power groups that make up Party of Regions. It is more akin in organization to a family clan than a functioning management board and that is its biggest weakness.

The prime minister is, frankly, wise to speak out against changes to the governmental team especially on the eve of a crucial IMF visit but perhaps for a more pressing issue. The whole economy of Ukraine is based upon the export of raw materials and energy to the West. Despite the lessons learned in the last economic crash little or nothing has been done to reduce the national economic dependency on this sector. This coupled with the emaciation of the SME sector means that there is now virtually nothing for the nation to fall back on should the world economy turn bad again.

The problem is that it is turning bad. China is forecasting their first balance of payments deficit in decades and their property bubble is about to burst, Europe is projecting minimal growth of less than 0.5 percent, the USA is verging on technical bankruptcy and the banks have no new money to lend. The signs of a new financial slow down the world over are already their more than obvious therefore the last thing the prime minister needs today is a new round of musical chairs.

Civil organizations prepare to unite in large-scale protest

On Oct. 14, Kyiv held a forum of civil organizations. Amassed protesters delivered Verkhovna Rada an ultimatum demanding that the parliament be disbanded by November 3rd and appoint a date for pre-term elections. The document, signed by representatives of more than 30,000 initiative groups from all regions of Ukraine as well as hundreds of civil organizations, will be delivered to the president and every people’s deputy. The forum’s delegates insist that the government has irreparably discredited itself by violating many social, economic and civil rights. Should the authorities ignore the ultimatum, the forum’s participants threaten to initiate mass protests all over Ukraine. Among the organisers and participants of the forum there were an organization representing Afghan war veterans ‘Nikhto krim nas’ (nobody except for us) and ‘Spilna sprava’ (common cause) a civil movement representing the interests of small-and-medium-sized business. The public outcry has attracted many different groups, movements and organization dissatisfied with governmental policy many of which are ready and willing to unite and rebel.

The authorities reacted to the forum by conducting an armed tax inspection at the central office of ‘nikhto krim nas’ the day before the forum was scheduled. The search was illegal and office employees suffered from the brutality of the tax inspectors. After the incident, the authorities did acknowledge that the tax inspection had been conducted by mistake and promised to punish those responsible. Vice Prime Minister Sergiy Tygipko had earlier denounced the actions of the Afghan war veterans as purity political.

http://www.day.kiev.ua/3026904

People First Comment: There is a golden saying in crisis management; you cannot put out a fire using gasoline. If Tygipko’s committee had satisfied the demands of the Afghan veterans then they would not have massed outside parliament demanding their rights. Furthermore for the authorities to ‘apologies’ for sending in masked thugs in the guise of tax police into a prominent NGO on the eve of a civil society forum and then claim it was an ‘accident’ is nothing short of insulting.

In the past many politicians claimed that Ukraine was in fear of splitting in two with the east going to Russia and the west to Europe. It was a political fear tactic however today Ukraine faces the same dilemma only this time the division is between the 2500 old guards of the self styled ruling elite and the 45 million people of the Ukrainian nation. This government is so far out of touch with the realities of life in Ukraine today that they are more akin to Marie Antoinette than leaders of a modern European state.

The rumbles of real and justifiable discontent are growing louder. Deputies should wake up and listen to the people before it is too late, after all it is one thing to have a few thousand angry pensioners banging on the doors of parliament, it is another to tens of thousands of angry and hungry workers. Their current arrogant indifference will only add fuel to the fire and make the people more determined.

Viktor Tkachuk is chief executive officer of the People First Foundation, which seeks to strengthen Ukrainian democracy. The organization’s website is: www.peoplefirst.org.ua and the e-mail address is: [email protected]