The campaign has barely
started and we can already see the government grabbing at every tool in the
box, including the anti-democratic, to achieve their political goals.
Pressure on media
The most resonant
examples of the government’s pressure on the media in Ukraine have been
criminal cases against Mykola Knyazhytsky, director of ТVі TV channel, and the
repressive actions against the Internet publication LB.ua. LB.ua has been
forced to stop operation for an indefinite term. The reason behind the criminal
case against the general director of TBi has been an accusation that he evaded
taxes in the amount of Hr 3 million while LB.ua has been accused of
distributing an SMS-conversation of one Verkhovna Rada deputy from the end of
2011.
Experts, including those
from Reporters Without Borders, have come to the conclusion that the cases in
question demonstrate directly the government’s policy of pressure on media.
The head of the Berlin
office of Reporters Without Borders, Christian Mir, mentioned that journalists
have been specifically terrorized before the elections so that they do not
write critically of the government.
Freedom House, an
international non-governmental organisation, have called upon the Ukrainian
authorities to make sure that the media do not become the subject to selective
persecution by the tax office.
At the same time, the
National Union of Journalists of Ukraine as well as Independent Media Trade
Union of Ukraine have put forward their demand that President Viktor Yanukovych
takes measures to stop the pressure on independent Ukrainian media.
International and
Ukrainian communities have forced the president to order that the Prosecutor
General and State Tax Office verify the legality of the criminal cases against
the director of TVi channel and LB.ua Internet publication.
The president has
expressed concern over the conflict between the government and the media during
the pre-election period.
People
First Comment: During the Soviet era,
pressure on the media was at its highest.
Journalists who did not follow the official line were cautioned, warned
and finally prosecuted. Some, including
many of the great writers and dissidents of the time, ended up in the Gulag and
Siberian work camps. Ukrainian journalists were no strangers to this political
contempt but many used their skill as writers to tell the news in such a
delicate and didactic way that they were able to confuse the censors and as a
result the messages were delivered to what was and still is today a highly
intelligent population.
Any direct attack on
the governing political party would be folly at the best of times but in the
run up to the election could prove to be regrettable, however bearing in mind
that the regime, like the former Soviet regime, is not blessed with the most
effective or frankly loyal censors and media managers, journalists would be
wise to hone their craft and deliver objective messages that do not openly
criticise but leave the reader in no doubt.
Certainly the regime,
just as in Russia, will control all of the mainstream media, they will seek to
control the printed media through fear and intimidation thus the journalistic
community have to make a choice, just as they did in 2004, to tow the regime’s
line and accept the consequences of another 5 years of the same, or stand up
for the principles of freedom of speech and democracy that created this nation
20 years ago. Their choice has never been clearer. If the people chose to
support the opposition in their protest they should not forget the impact of their
populism which swept the nation in the past.
Political prosecution
continues
The case of former Prime
Minister Yulia Tymoshenko is still the primary example of the political
prosecution which has been taking place in Ukraine. Despite numerous requests
from the Ukrainian and worldwide community to release Tymoshenko, for her to
receive much needed medical treatment, the government still keeps the former
prime minister in prison. They have also initiated yet another criminal case
against her, based on alleged financial violations which she committed as
director of the United Energy Systems of Ukraine.
Another resonant
criminal case, that of former Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, also proves
that political repression is a Ukrainian reality.
In February, Lutsenko
was sentenced to four years in jail. Soon after, the authorities opened another
criminal case against Lutsenko. Under the second case Lutsenko received a
commuted punishment for negligence whilst being in the office and was sentenced
to imprisonment for the period of up to thre years. Lutsenko’s lawyer is
confident that this criminal case may be cancelled in August because the
limitation period for the case has already expired.
On July 3, The European
Court of Human Rights recognised that the case against Lutsenko was handled
with violations and sentenced Ukraine to pay 15,000 euros compensation to
Lutsenko. In particular, ECHR counted six violations of specific articles of
the European Convention on Human Rights during the court proceedings against
the former Ukrainian minister. The Court recognised that the case against
Lutsenko was politicized and recognized that political prosecution does take
place in Ukraine. By ignoring the decision of the European Court of Human
Rights in Lutsenko’s case the Ukrainian authorities further proved to the world
community that Ukraine is a territory of selective justice and massive
corruption of power. In this case Ukraine increases the risk of sanctions from
the USA and EU and visa-bans for senior Ukrainian officials.
People
First Comment: It would be spectacularly
naïve of the regime to believe that they can continue with the current wave of
repression without there being some form of consequences. This really signifies a downward spiral. Public opinion in Ukraine seems to side with
the philosophy that both opposition leaders did not get a fair and just trial
thus both should be released, however there is now a deeper understanding that
nobody is safe under this regime.
What is so immensely
sad about the modern history of Ukraine is that each successive presidency has
effectively made matters worse in trying to manipulate the future and this
regime is no different. Ex-President Leonid Kravchuk concentrated on issues of
nationalism instead of seizing the economic opportunity, while ex-President
Leonid Kuchma gave too much power to the oligarchs and created the direct link
between politics and business, whie ex-President Viktor Yushchenko encouraged
the oligarchs with weak and compromise-based policies and the incumbent
president, Viktor Yanukovych, has simply capitalised on the situation to
increase his personal power and wealth.
As a result, Ukraine
seems to be heading down the inevitable path to either social and economic
implosion or international isolation, neither of which will deliver the free
and independent state Ukrainians voted for in 1991. The only real solution is the restoration of
the rule of law and equality but it may well be a long time before such a dream
is realised as first the people have to understand that life does not have to
be this way and that they can bring about change if only they can rise above
their personal ambitions. For Ukrainians that would be quite an achievement.
Mounting confrontation
between president and opposition
Ukraine has seen the
launch of a new anti-governmental campaign – Ukraine without Yanukovych — the
united opposition, including mainly the two opposition forces of ‘Batkivshchyna’
(Yulia Tymoshenko) and ‘Front Zmin’ (Arseniy Yatsenyuk), initiated a collection
of signatures against Yanukovych calling for his impeachment.
Let us remind ourselves
that the last such campaign which was Ukraine without Kuchma, which led to the 2004
Orange Revolution. The collection of signatures against the Ukrainian president
is already unrolling in a number of regions. Opposition leaders believe that
the campaign might well become a public referendum for the people to express
their non-confidence in the current political regime and create grounds for
early Presidential elections).
People
First Comment: It would be fair to
say that the only similarity between the ‘Ukraine Without Kuchma’ and the
‘Ukraine Without Yanukovych’ campaigns is that they both want to dislodge the president
of the time.
The anti-Kuchma
campaign started in the west of Ukraine when Kuchma tried to lay flowers at the
memorial to Taras Shevchenko. The
violence that followed discredited the movement and it only came back into
public spotlight as a result of the Mykola Melnychenko tapes, the murder of Georgiy
Gongadze and at the 2004 elections that led to the Orange Revolution. This was
not a political campaign; it was very much a grass root mass reaction to what
the public agreed were flagrant violations of their rights.
The ‘Ukraine Without Yanukovych’
campaign is exactly the opposite. It is
a bid by the political opposition to rally public support for a campaign to
oust the President. It has virtually no
grass root support as the organisers themselves are seen by the public to come
from the same mould.
What is interesting,
however, is that whilst the two campaigns are very different, they share a
similar track record in that both started from a deliberate insult by the
regime. Flowers before Shevchenko in
2001 and the language issue in 2012.
Both resulted in violence interestingly perpetrated by the same
nationalist political party and both were subsequently repressed by the regime
on the grounds of internal security. One
has to question whether the politicians, the activists or the regime have
learned anything from the past or whether this is just the same tactics of
repression being used over and over again.
Increased risk of
international isolation
As a result of the lack
of desire and ability of the Ukrainian authorities to stop anti-democratic
practices in various spheres of life in Ukraine (including: politics, business,
social sector and religion), the United States Congress has issued a Resolution
suggesting sanctions against Ukrainian officials involved in infringement of
human rights. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine quickly issued a
statement noting that the Resolution was offered in recommendation and is not
compulsory).
The draft resolution
suggested by the U.S. Congress is a signal to the Ukrainian authorities. Though
some fear it might usher in a period of international isolation after October 28 in the case of non-transparent
and undemocratic parliamentary elections.
The European Union is
also closely monitoring the process of democratic development in Ukraine,
especially in the run-up to elections. Separate EU member-countries are
pursuing much tougher policy against Ukrainian state officials. For example,
British government representatives refused to attend an official meeting with
President Yanukovych during the official opening of the 2012 Olympic Games in
London.
People
First Comment: Political repression
in the 20th century became an unacceptable administrative tool after
the end of World War II, when the free world recognized that they could take
collective action against regimes that sought authoritarianism through
repression.
The United Nations
Human Rights Charter clearly and unambiguously defines what is meant by
political repression. Ukraine was one of
the early signatories of this landmark document yet this regime seems to
believe they can fly in the face of their international obligations without there
being any repercussions.
They are wrong, there
will be repercussions. Each time they
use a repressive means to achieve their ends they build for themselves a new
layer in the wall of consequences. There
will come a point in the not too far distant future when the wall is too
obvious to ignore and it will be at this point that the free world will say
enough is enough. Gross manipulation of
the forthcoming election could easily be the straw that breaks the camel’s back
as both the USA and the EU have already made their positions clear.
The regime would be
unwise to believe that the west will treat Ukraine in the same way they have
treated Russia as Ukraine has few, if any, bargaining chips. There is little
that Ukraine produces that cannot be bought elsewhere in the world and there
would be few international political consequences for concerted action thus it
is really only a matter of time before the shutters come down. Initially this would involve travel bans,
then the freezing of banks accounts and then if nothing changed it could even
result in an Iranian or North Korean style isolation. This regime needs to understand that they
cannot play such games with the international community forever, more
importantly the people should define what they want for their country.
In summary, the parliamentary election campaign is
unrolling against a background of continuing political repression of opposition
and increasing pressure on media, resulting in a political backlash of the
launch of a ‘Ukraine without Yanukovych’ anti-governmental campaign and
increasing the risk of international isolation of the Ukrainian authorities.
With three months to go until the elections the government of Ukraine still has
the time and opportunity to secure transparent elections. Otherwise Ukraine might face a long period of
political instability.
It would seem highly
unlikely that the forthcoming parliamentary elections in Ukraine are going to
be free and fair as the gloves are clearly off right from the start. There will be violations on all sides as
there is no legal way of enforcing the election legislation and there seems to
be no moral convention to control it either, thus this is a further indication
of the downward spiral.
Party of Regions will
most likely win a working majority from ‘innovative practices’ of vote counting
and backstage negotiations. Similarly, foreign observers fool themselves if
they truly believe that their presence will secure free and fair voting. The
independent majoritarian deputies will come to the realisation that they will
not be able to achieve anything without the support of their regional
administrations most of which are controlled by Party of Regions or the
Presidential administration. Some will
resist and join the opposition, most however will, no doubt, be induced or
persuaded to take the ‘king’s shilling’ and march to the President’s drum.
The opposition will do
well not because of their election programme and bright leaders but simply
because the current government has been acting against the interests of the people.
So it is likely that the people will vote for the lesser of the two evils which
in this case is the opposition. Once in power, they too will have to horse-trade
with the independents.
The one dark horse
could be Vitali Klitschko as neither he nor his party can be blamed for the
current malaise and thus he will possibly be seen as a vision of a real
tomorrow. In many ways this is his
election to lose but he will have to run a spectacular campaign if he is going
to win outright. Only time will tell whether his team can be successful in the Parliament.
What may change is that
with an injection of new blood from the independent majoritarian deputies we
could well see an end to ‘piano voting’ and more legislation designed to help
and support the majority thus the Rada could well stop being a rubber stamp for
the regime and the President’s vertical power structure could come to an end…
We wait and watch.
One way or another the
President will be the one to have the final say. If the international community
declare the elections unfair he can dissolve the parliament as he simply does
not need an illegitimate Parliament. If the elections are recognized as fair
and free, although not perfect, he will need two thirds of the seats to further
strengthen his policies through Constitutional changes. Everything has its price
and the President appears ready to pay. It really does not matter what the
opposition or the international community have to say; the most important thing
will be the voice of the people.
Viktor Tkachuk is chief executive officer of the People First
Foundation, which seeks to strengthen Ukrainian democracy. The
organization’s website is: www.peoplefirst.org.ua and the e-mail address
is: [email protected]
