Poland has just concluded its first week in its six-month presidency of the council of the European Union.
While the presidency after the Lisbon Treaty has shrunk to more of an administrative responsibility than a leadership position, the Polish government has vocally and ambitiously used its presidential term to bring Europe’s attention eastward.
Ukraine is definitely on the presidency’s wish list.
– Kacper Chmielewski, spokesperson for Poland’s representation to Brussels.
For Ukraine this means a unique opportunity to reach a new understanding with Europe.
For Poland, successfully mediating an agreement between Brussels and Kyiv could present an opportunity to make its presidency stand out.
On the front page of its issue commemorating the presidency, Poland’s largest daily newspaper, Gazeta Wyborcza, put it in clear terms: “If we manage to revitalize the Eastern Partnership and push forward association talks with Ukraine, it will be the greatest success of our presidency.”
“Ukraine is definitely on the presidency’s wish list,” said Kacper Chmielewski, spokesperson for Poland’s representation to Brussels. “If they take the appropriate steps, we’d like to see an association agreement.”
From left: Polish President Bronislaw Komorowski, Ukrainan President Viktor Yanukovych and U.S. President Barack Obama take part in a dinner for central European leaders at the presidential palace in Warsaw on May 27. (Mykhailo Markiv)
Poland’s communist history and its successful implementation of economic and democratic reforms lend it a unique authority and expertise in discussions about EU enlargement.
This is coupled with a sense of solidarity with other post-Communist nations – a desire to help them follow in Poland’s European footsteps – has popular support, even across the divisive lines of Polish politics. Za nasza i wasza wolnosc, “for our freedom and yours,” one of Poland’s oldest popular slogans has been enthusiastically adapted to the context of the Eastern Neighborhood’s European aspirations.
But while Poland’s story was about finding freedom in Western institutions after years of reliance on Russia, Ukraine’s relation to Europe is more subtle, cautions Eugeniusz Smolar, a senior fellow at the Polish Institute of International Affairs.
“There is a substantial portion of the population that speaks Russian, that has family and business ties in Russia,” Smolar told me. “Our message is that you don’t need to break these ties. You can improve your relationship with Moscow through becoming part of the European Union’s bloodstream.”
Poland sees itself as the lobby of Ukraine in the EU. But sometimes we can be hypocritical.
– Adam Balcer, program director for EU Enlargement and the Neighborhood at demosEuropa
Whether or not this lesson has always been understood, Poles have played an integral part in Ukraine’s history since 2004 – the same year that Poland officially joined the EU and half a million Ukrainians gathered together on Independence Square in Kyiv to protest falsified election results.
Polish President Aleksander Kwasniewski and Solidarity icon Lech Walesa both intervened to impart the wisdom of the Polish roundtable and facilitate a peaceful resolution to the Orange Revolution.
Later in 2008, Poland became the driving force behind the Eastern Partnership program, the EU’s most significant commitment to Ukraine so far.
Warsaw will host the partnership’s second summit this year in September, midway through the Polish presidency, and many analysts suspect it will mean an alignment of the stars for Ukraine.
Poland is first to acknowledge that the partnership’s programs are underfunded but has remained a steadfast supporter of the program since its inception. Unsurprisingly, the Polish presidential agenda seeks to deepen the partnership and the EU’s commitments.
“Poland sees itself as the lobby of Ukraine in the EU. But sometimes we can be hypocritical,” says Adam Balcer, program director for EU Enlargement and the Neighborhood at demosEuropa, a Warsaw think tank.
“We complain very often that the EU should increase its financial support to the Eastern Partnership, but we also have a duty to increase Polish foreign aid, which is only 0.08 percent of our gross domestic product. By comparison, Portugal spends four times that figure.”
Poland’s business ties to Ukraine also could improve. Balcer says that Poland has long stood in the way of a more open agricultural market with Ukraine in order to protect domestic markets. Polish investors have largely avoided their Eastern neighbor, only about two percent of Ukraine’s foreign direct investment comes from Poland.
The Ukrainian economy is run by some 10 oligarchs. I have no question that Yanukovych sat down with these men and reached a strategic agreement. He is a very pragmatic man.
– Eugeniusz Smolar, a senior fellow at the Polish Institute of International Affairs.
Part of that wariness could come from Warsaw’s poor returns on its political investment in the Orange revolutionaries. After the paralyzing failures of the Orange government, Polish and European leaders feared “Ukraine fatigue” was setting in among the general population.
According to Smolar, disillusionment reached its nadir with the election of President Viktor Yanukovych, an unlikely ally for Ukraine’s European path.
Counter-intuitively, Smolar argued, it was Yanukovych’s presidency and the Party of Region’s control of parliament that allowed for the pro-European changes to the law that have put the association agreement within reach. He pointed to the necessary economic liberalization.
“The Ukrainian economy is run by some 10 oligarchs. I have no question that Yanukovych sat down with these men and reached a strategic agreement,” said Smolar. “He is a very pragmatic man.”
Ukrainian businessmen are not the only ones Yanukovych has been working hard to impress. Since early scuffles with EU leaders over freedom of press and political opposition, Yanukovych has slowly worked to improve his relationship with the West. He has a clear incentive: Signing an association agreement with Europe could bump up the Ukrainian president’s low poll numbers.
Yanukovych’s progress on this front can be seen in his relationship with Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski.
Last November, Sikorski visited Kyiv with his Swedish counterpart to deliver a difficult message about corruption and civil rights. Two weeks ago, in a sharply contrasting visit, Yanukovych awarded Sikorski with the Order of Prince Yaroslav the Wise for his efforts in combating the Chornobyl nuclear plant disaster.
Later, when asked in an interview with the Polish Press Agency if Ukraine’s association agreement would be signed during the Polish presidency, Sikorski responded that he hoped the negotiations could be finished by the end of the term, provided negotiations continue at their current tempo.
Given the mutual interests between Warsaw and Kyiv in signing such a document, it’s hard to imagine that an association agreement won’t be reached. The question emerges – what fresh challenges Ukraine will face after the ink dries?
William Schreiber is a freelance journalist based in Warsaw. He can be contacted at [email protected].
