The population of Ukraine is shrinking and aging. To speak of a “dying nation,” as some commentators have suggested, is surely exaggerated.
However, this trend is certainly a cause for concern as it will affect the economic and social development of the country.
In 1990, the population of Ukraine was 51 million, while by 2010 it shrank by more than 5 million to 45.5 million.
The World Bank suggests this trend is continuing, with the population decreasing by nearly 1 percent per year, or 380,000 people, roughly the population of Sevastopol.
“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future,” the Danish physicist Niels Bohr once said.
However, demography is not about reading in a crystal ball.
The population of Ukraine will continue to shrink and age.
In circumstances of peace and disregarding migration, one can fairly accurately assess how many 20-year-old Ukrainians there will be in 20 years simply by counting the newborns of today.
Ukraine’s fertility rate currently stands at 1.1, which is below the European Union average of 1.2 and far lower than the 2.1 required to maintain a steady population level.
Moreover, demographic decline means the population is aging, with a continuously growing percentage of elderly persons in society.
The population of Ukraine will continue to shrink and age.
This is not prophecy, but simple extrapolation. In the near future, these demographic trends will result in shortages on the domestic labor market.
Already today, some regions are short of construction and metal workers as well as electricians, to name just a few examples.
People stand in line in front of the Consulate General of Poland in Lviv on March 19, 2008. Ukraine’s population has shrunk from 51 million people in 1991 to less than 46 million people today. Besides low birth rates and high mortality rates, millions of Ukrainians have gone abroad seeking better lives. (PHL)
It will also put pressure on the pension system and the public health sector, with less and less people of working age having to support a growing number of elderly persons.
Role of migration
In the past 20 years, Ukraine has shifted from a relatively immobile society with limited freedom of movement to a country where migrants come from, transit through or stay.
Out-migration will continue and future shortages on the Ukrainian labor market have the potential to be further accelerated as the populations of many traditional destination countries for Ukrainian migrants are also shrinking and aging, notably in the European Union and the Russia Federation.
Their labor shortages might very well be filled by an ever-growing number of Ukrainian migrants in the future.
Discouraging Ukrainians seeking employment abroad cannot be the solution.
To mitigate the negative consequences and promote the positive impact of migration, Ukrainians should rather be encouraged to migrate circularly and return to invest their savings.
This will simultaneously alleviate demographic concerns and also increase the development potential of migration.
Discouraging Ukrainians seeking employment abroad cannot be the solution.
Few people realize the crucial importance of the money transferred home by migrants.
Ukrainian migrants remit $5 to $9 billion per year, representing between 5 percent to 8.5 percent of national gross domestic product and equaling the amount that foreign companies invest in the country.
How this inflow of money could be increased and better used for development is an issue which needs to be addressed.
Traditional labor-sending countries like Mexico and the Philippines have long realized the enormous development potential of migrant transfers and have successfully created substantial support structures to increase and better utilize remittances.
The current migration debate focuses mainly on Ukrainians going abroad and citizens of other countries transiting through Ukraine.
However, in the future it will become increasingly necessary to include the need for immigration into this debate.
The population of Europe as a continent is shrinking and aging, while the world population continues to grow.
Ukrainian border guards and their dog walk by the then-unopened border crossing at Maly Selmentsi village on the Ukraine-Slovakia border in 2005. (AFP)
Ukraine’s neighbors are beginning to realize that due to increasing labor shortages, more immigration will become necessary to fill this gap.
Countries like Germany, Sweden and Russia, for example, have started looking into their immigration needs.
The European Union’s eastern neighborhood policy also reflects the need to establish more legal employment opportunities for labor migrants from the region.
To a certain extent, this means Ukraine will be competing with other countries in the future in terms of attracting foreign labor and also employing its own Ukrainian citizens.
It is therefore of vital importance that Ukraine considers how to attract migrants to work in Ukraine legally and promote circular and return migration for their own nationals.
It is important to note that migration cannot be regarded as the sole solution to demographic decline.
The challenges accompanying shrinking and aging societies are far too complex to be solved by simply importing labor.
Increasing the fertility rate is among those questions that have to be addressed.
It is important to note that migration cannot be regarded as the sole solution to demographic decline.
However, if managed well, migration can become one of the tools which will stem the negative effects of demographic decline and promote sustainable economic growth.
Ukraine is currently about to address several demographic and migration-related issues, such as pension reform and the revised Statute of Foreigners Act that is currently being discussed.
Demographic decline will affect the country no matter what. The question is how to respond to it and how migration can help to alleviate the consequences of this trend.
Manfred Profazi is the chief of mission of the International Organization for Migration in Ukraine.
