On August 11, 2016, the Russian military held naval war games on the Black Sea, and placed its troops in Crimea on ‘combat alert.” Russia’s military escalation immediately followed Kremlin allegations that Ukrainian commandos had killed 2 Russian servicemen in Crimea. As the Russian Defense Ministry recently expanded Russia’s Black Sea military deployment to 40,000 troops, many Western policymakers have expressed concern about further Russian territorial annexations in Ukraine.
Predictions of imminent Russian territorial expansion are premised on a misinterpretation of Russian foreign policy conduct. Based on my extensive research on Putin’s strategic thinking, there is compelling evidence that Russia’s military escalation is primarily motivated by domestic political consolidation, rather than empire-building.
