Long answer, keep reading – but it’s going to take a while. Lots of words in this essay, you are warned.
My thinking is (1) the Ukrainian military is no longer a walkover (2) the Russians are politically and militarily not in an immediate assault mode and (3) NATO is doing things that will get Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attention.
This is not to say Putin isn’t dangerous, or that he couldn’t invade because of stupidity. The guy is a menace and the only way to deal with him is force. But the time where Putin gets send his army wherever he wants, free pass, are fading – because now, slowly, he is being met by force.