Two and a half years after the Russian invasion of Ukraine, too many public figures in the United States and Europe still seem unable to decipher Russia’s motives. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently told a Bosnian newspaper that NATO’s readiness to extend membership to Montenegro and welcome Bosnia and Macedonia was not only a mistake but also a provocation. At a recent meeting, a European political figure professed that he could not begin to understand why Lavrov and his government feel this way. Neither is he alone. Far too many people in public life seem unable to grasp the motives driving Russian behavior.
Nobody in his right mind could believe that Bosnia, Macedonia, and Montenegro threaten Russia or its vital interests or that NATO can threaten Russia. Mustering eight battalions to defend its front-line allies by 2017 hardly constitutes evidence of a threat. Yet for Russia, the self-determination of these polities represents a threat. This is because Moscow’s actions in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe strike at a triple target. The ancient Roman phrase about how the emperor sustained his popularity by giving the population bread and circuses applies here. The first target is the domestic one of ensuring that by promoting imperial adventures Putin retains power. Imperial adventurism is now the precondition for preserving Putin’s system and if the former is thwarted by the latter, it must either reform – which it clearly refuses to do – or go under.
