There are skeptics and optimists in any team, and the ruling Party of Regions – which backs President Viktor Yanukovych – is no different. The skeptics exaggerate threats, while the optimists underestimate them.
There are three potential political scenarios developing for the ruling party at the moment, and the view on which is likely to come about largely depends on whether you are a skeptic or an optimist.
The worst-case scenario for the Party of Regions is a rapid drop in the political rating of President Viktor Yanukovych and his party, especially among his core electorate.
This could lead to opponents such as ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, ex-Foreign Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk and Svoboda Party leader Oleh Tiahnybok gain strong representation in parliament after elections next year, as well as a number of independently-minded candidates taking seats under the majoritarian system.
Police detain an activist during a May 14 rally to protest against President Viktor Yanukovych. The demonstrators demanded the resignation of Yanukovych and the Cabinet of Ministers during the rally outside parliament. (Yaroslav Debelyi)
This will significantly complicate the use of administrative resources at the presidential election and could lead to the emergence of a real competitor for the presidency. As a result, it could lead to defeat at the presidential election.
The second, somewhat more optimistic scenario, suggests that despite the drop in ratings, the Party of Regions will win a majority in parliament, but not the 300 of 450 seats needed to change the constitution. In this case, the opposition will have no chance to create a majority, and Yanukovych would win the presidential election, although not without difficulties.
The third scenario is one for the party optimists. It could manage to realize the aim of monopolizing the political field, bringing the maximum number of majoritarians to its side and creating a constitutional majority in parliament.
This would allow the authorities to control all the major political and economic processes, preventing the emergence at the presidential election of a real candidate other than the acting president, and thus, despite all the risks, to remain in power for two terms.
The question for the Party of Regions’ current political allies – Volodymyr Lytvyn’s People’s Party, the Communist Party and, possibly, Sergiy Tigipko’s Strong Ukraine – is how they react to the development of each of these scenarios.
They will have to decide whether they have sufficient personnel, organizational and financial resources to ensure a long-term political strategy, no matter what scenario will take place.
To date, there is general agreement that none of these political forces has such resources and that these parties, in order to survive, must in one form or another have very clear and mutually beneficial arrangements with the ruling party.
There can be two such arrangements.
First, if the leaders of the Party of Regions decide they are interested in the presence of political allies and the creation of a quasi-democratic atmosphere in the country, they will do everything to ensure that the People’s Party and any other reliable partners are present in parliament as independent political forces.
These parties will go into the elections on their own and have a sufficient number of strong candidates in single-member districts.
In this case, both the People’s Party and the Communist Party will have to make enormous organizational and financial effort to overcome the electoral apathy toward these parties, and thus take on major financial and political risks. After all, the ruling party may not stick to any agreements.
Second, if the Party of Regions does not consider the risks significant, it may decide not to reach any arrangements and take on its political allies on a voluntary basis, not allowing anybody to enter its electoral field. In this case, today’s political allies must soberly assess their prospects and be ready to sacrifice their political forces in order to preserve their representation in the authorities at all levels.
There is no perfect and correct decision for Party of Regions leaders as to how to proceed. Any decision is fraught with risk, and it is obvious that political competition is better than a monopoly of one political force.
But it is also clear that the Party of Regions will be fighting for dominance in the political space.
Parliament needs independent political forces, but the problem is that virtually all political parties are badly prepared for the forthcoming parliamentary elections, and they have to hope for a miracle if they want to overcome even the existing barrier of 3 percent to enter parliament.
The only exceptions are the Front of Changes party of Yatseniuk and the Batkivshchyna (Fatherland) Party of Tymoshenko. But opposition parties remain fragmented and this situation is likely to remain so after the elections. There is no reason to expect the emergence in parliament of an influential opposition.
In the near future, therefore, the most dangerous “enemy” for the ruling party is the ruling party itself – internal squabbles, mistakes in foreign policy, and fiscal, economic, pension and other reforms that may influence the voters’ mood much more strongly than a free media or opposition protests.
Vladimir Granovski has been a consultant to Ukrainian politicians, businesses and foreign investors since the 1990s. His clients have included the ruling Party of Regions and President Viktor Yanukovych.
