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You're reading: Three possible outcomes of U.S. budget tight

Under the current circumstances in the US the capital markets understand that the immediate issues are generated by differing political agendas between Democrats and Republicans, and not reflective of perceived financial distress in the US.

There are three possible outcomes: 1) A deal is reached before the August 2 deadline, 2) A short-term deal (estimated 6-months) is reached by August 2nd, allowing further debate and a more general agreement within Q1 of 2012, or 3) No deal is reached.

There is essentially no chance that a deal will not be reached. Both the Democrats and the Republicans are not debating whether or not to increase the debt ceiling, rather they are arguing over if/how taxes will be raised and the composition and quantity of budget cuts.

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