Ukrainian forces appear to have tried yet another offensive to dislodge separatists in Slovyansk. Yet this saw two military helicopters downed, with two pro-Kyiv troops killed, and a separatist also killed. President Tuchynov indicated that the operation was stalled by the separatists using human shields.

Meanwhile, fights appear to have broken out in a pro-Kyiv rally in Odessa, resulting in at least one death. The latter suggests that unrest is spreading, and underlines that Kyiv is unable to provide security across the country.

Moscow has claimed that Ukraine stopped flights in/out of Kharkiv and Donetsk – the Ukrainian authorities have argued that this was just specific to flights from Moscow – presumably aimed at stopping “support” being brought in from Russia. Separately Ukrainian Railways indicated that separatists occupied its buildings today stalling rail traffic in Donetsk – risking a broader disruption to trade/economic activity.

Russia has also called an emergency session of the UN Security Council to discuss developments in Slovyansk. Given the narrow focus of the agenda we doubt this will do anything more than serve as a focus for a slanging match between the various sides, with little hope of mediation at this stage.

Talks between the EU, Russia and Ukraine took place in Warsaw earlier today but with little evidence of any breakthrough on various disputed issues over gas pricing, supply and debts.  Note there has been some discussion over whether IMF monies can be used to cover gas debts to Russia – our understanding is that IMF/IFI monies will be paid into general government/NBU accounts and can then be used for covering various government liabilities, but that the IMF will likely have required current gas debts to be clear/paid, up to a gas debt price of USD386.5 per 1,000 cu metres. Russia has threatened to cut gas supplies without pre-payment from June – I doubt they will deliver on this threat given that it will hurt their allies in Europe.

One opposition leader, Yuri Lutsenko, has called for the Party of Regions and the Communist Party of Ukraine to be banned for their support for the suppression of EuroMaidan demonstrators. I doubt this will go down well in Moscow – or rather this might be manna from heaven for those arguing for internvention in Ukraine.

In the US, Senator John McCain has tabled a sanctions bill before the US Congress – I hear from various US sources some uncertainty – very mixed views – as to whether this will pass. But if passed, it would up the ante on Moscow, and even if not passed it will pressurise the Obama administration to adopt a more strident stance towards Moscow.                

Timothy Ash is an analyst with Standard Bank in London.