First, I don’t think anyone now has a clear perception where this is going.
There has been mention of Ukraine during the 2004 Orange Revolution that stopped Viktor Yanukovych from coming to power; then 2013-2014 EuroMaidan Revolution, which forced Yanukovych from power; Armenia in 2018, with anti-government but not anti-Moscow protests; even the Prague Spring 1968 or Hungary 1956, when the Soviets used force to crush rebellions. Prague and Hungary are the worst-case scenarios but cannot be ruled out.
All are to some extent possible.
Second, some have suggested no chance of Russian military intervention but you cannot rule this out as Vladimir Putin has gone there with past military intervention in Moldova, Ukraine, and Georgia to deliver on Russian political objectives, and Russian troops in Armenia and Tajikistan. And we know that Belarus is as important strategically to Moscow as any of these three. And I think I have no doubt that if the situation in Belarus seemed to Moscow like it was heading to a Ukraine like scenario where a new government which likely looked West that he would send troops into Belarus. There is no chance Putin will tolerate a Western-leaning Belarus. That is a statement backed up by plenty of past statements and actions.
Third, things might not end quickly. If you think back to the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, it was several weeks between the first stolen run-off vote on Nov. 21, before the Supreme Court finally on Dec. 4, 2004, called for a repeat of that vote for Dec. 24. Demonstrations continued throughout this period. And then during Euromaidan Revolution, the demonstrations lasted for 3 months or more until Yanukovych eventually fled in on Feb. 22, 2014. Then Russian troops went into Crimea in April that year, and then later that year in Donbas.
Fourth, unlike the Orange Revolution or EuroMaidan Revolution in Ukraine, Putin has had plenty of time to see this coming and now plenty of experience with these similar color revolutions. Many have argued that Putin’s hand is behind the efforts to get rid of Lukashenko – note the capture of Wagner mercenaries and the suggestion that some opposition leaders have close ties to Moscow. So presumably Putin has a plan or several plans.
Fifth, in the Orange Revolution or EuroMaidan, the West was very engaged in Ukraine and there was something of a coordinated response. The West also had much more leverage over Moscow – in 2004 Putin was a more inexperienced leader and still likely hoped for more engagement and cooperation with the West. This might have evaporated by the time of EuroMaidan but the West was still willing to deploy politicians on the ground in Kyiv to try and help resolution. This time around a weak and divided West is struggling to put together a response. And I don’t think any Western politicians have appeared on the ground in Minsk I think for fear of giving Putin a pretext for military intervention.
Sixth, it’s worthwhile asking here what all the sides want from this:
Demonstrators: Exit of Lukashenko, free and fair elections, to live in peace with good relations with the neighbors and as a normal European country with decent human rights. If asked, probably nonaligned status – think Finland or Austria.
Putin: To keep Belarus under the Russian strategic umbrella. Indeed to deepen integration with Russia under the Union agreement. He wants the ability to put Russian troops on the border with NATO and Ukraine. He prefers a managed democracy in Belarus where whatever outcome, the leader follows Moscow’s lead. He will not tolerate Western interference in Belarus – that itself would be a pretext for Russian military intervention. He can take or leave Lukashenko if the next Belarusian leader bows to Russian hegemony and leadership in security and foreign affairs.
The West: Donald J. Trump is not interested, likely does not even know where or what Belarus is. Likely would be fine about signing Belarus over to Putin if it allowed him to win support from Putin to ensure his election win. But just wondering if Putin has something up his sleeve for this looming pre-election summit with Trump?
Europe: Generally supportive of the demonstrators but split in terms of how to play Putin. Eastern states – the Baltics, Poland et al more willing to confront Putin. Western states, France, Germany et al while eager to help support democracy and human rights in Belarus but eager not to be dragged into another Ukraine like scenario which could further spur the relationship with Moscow.
UK? The question mark says it all. We have some great diplomats who know the country well but not seeing any leadership on the issue from a distracted government seemingly going from one crisis to the next.
