These are really interesting developments in Ukraine, with President Volodymyr Zelensky banning three TV stations associated with pro-Kremlin oligarch Viktor Medvedchuk, and the 44-member Opposition Bloc in Ukraine’s parliament launching an impeachment process against Zelensky. That is going to fail as they lack enough votes in the Rada.
But Ukrainian politics just stepped up a gear. It seems Zelensky has been spurred into action by a combination of things.
First, opinion polls domestically have shown his own popularity lagging, and that of his Servant of the People faction now trailing in fourth place with the pro-Russian, 44-member Opposition Bloc now the most popular party, albeit with only 20% or so support.
Second, I think the recent battle with member of parliament Oleksandr Dubinsky and his ally, billionaire oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, revealed the true opposition therein to his rule and the fact that he only commands 198 of 246 Verkhovna Rada deputies in his Servant of the People faction, far short of a majority. This shows he is really going to struggle to govern unless he reaches out to other groups – and therein it seems likely he will need to ally with ex-President Petro Poroshenko, ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, and others to counter the resurgence of the pro-Russian opposition with the likes of Kolomoisky and Dubinsky. This means really deciding where he sits in the West vs. East battle. It is no longer an option to sit on the fence.
Third, I think in calls with the new Joe Biden administration, and watching events with Alexei Navalny in Moscow, Zelensky has realized that Ukraine is an asset to the Biden administration as a foil to the resurgence of Russia. He seems to have received assurance from the Biden team that supporting Ukraine is central to their plans to counter Russia and this has given him the confidence to stand up to Russian and oligarchic interests at home. I think the White House will also have told him in no uncertain terms that he needs to stand up to kleptocracy and that the US will be side by side with him in that. This explains the moves now against Kolomoisky, Dubinsky, and Medvedchuk and their allies and interests.
The gloves are now off. Let’s see how Putin reacts – watch Donbas.
P.S. — I never understood why Medvedchuk, Yuriy Boyko, and those close to ex-President Viktor Yanukovych and Putin were able to remain in Ukraine and indeed flourish after the EuroMaidan Revolution of 2013-2014 that ended Yanukovych’s presidency.
