Good luck getting rid of the monstrosity of a statue that graces the main square in Kharkiv, or the thousands of other reminders — embedded in architecture and, more sinisterly, in culture — of the Soviet era. Viktor Yushchenko, as president from 2005-2010, ordered the Communist-era symbols removed. In carrying out this order, Yushchenko was as effective as most everything else he did as president. He talked the right game, he just didn’t get anything done.
The hundreds of thousands of people who turned out on Dec. 8 in Kyiv — joined by thousands around the world in solidarity — have set much loftier goals than toppling a statue. As symbolically satisfying and cathartic as that public act of vandalism was, their goal of peacefully forcing President Viktor Yanukovych from power is a much taller order.
On Dec. 8, the momentum was with those on the streets. But today and tomorrow? We still don’t know. There is still room for compromise, but that room is getting smaller by the day. The rhetoric, tensions, threats and demands are all heating up.
Both the authorities and opposition are accusing each other of planning violence. Both deny the accusations. The authorities say the opposition is trying to stage a coup. The opposition says the authorities are trying to provoke violence to justify a police crackdown and imposition of martial law.
Before things get too far out of hand, let’s review each sides demands and positions — and the possibility for compromises on all of them.
EuroMaidan demand 1:
President Viktor Yanukovych and Prime Minister Mykola Azarov resign and authorities call presidential and parliamentary elections until ahead of schedule.
Government response: Everybody who has watched Yanukovych since he took power knows that all of his actions have been geared towards perpetuating his time in office. The next scheduled presidential election is January 2015, and it would take a lot more than hundreds of thousands of people on the streets on Sundays to get Yanukovych to back down. He is the same one who keeps his 2010 defeated rival, Yulia Tymoshenko, in prison; and his party passed a law in parliament to knock out the second most threatening rival, Vitali Klitschko.
Possible compromise: It would take a mighty and sustained show of public support, as well as outside pressure and inducements — both good and bad — for Yanukovych to give ground, but he might have to do so. He has lost a lot of legitimacy and popularity for backtracking on his promise to integrate the nation more closely with the European Union. If he allows spring 2014 presidential elections, it just may be enough to satisfy compromise-minded opposition politicians. Maybe. Prime Minister Mykola Azarov and his government may have to also step down for this compromise to work.
EuroMaidan demand 2:
Protect freedom of speech, assembly; punish those responsible for the violent police crackdown on demonstrators on Nov. 30 and release protesters arrested.
Government response: The government is working to pressure news outlets to tone down the coverage of EuroMaidan. Remarkably, the oligarch-owned media are allowing some news coverage, suggesting some of them are wavering in their support for Yanukovych. Azarov also continues to cling to his fiction that protesters provoked the violent police crackdown on Nov. 30. Authorities have also vowed to remove protesters blocking or barricading government buildings.
Possible compromise: This is the easiest area to find compromise. The government should stop allowing judges to issue court orders limiting peaceful public demonstrations. The opposition needs to recognize that takeovers of government buildings are against the law, and get protesters out if free speech demands are met along with the release of demonstrators. The long-term solution is much more complicated it would require an overhaul of the top-down, politically subservient judicial system.
EuroMaidan demand 3:
Sign the association agreement with the European Union.
Government response: Both the president and prime minister say they are continuing EU negotiations. No one believes them.
Possible compromise: Now that Ukrainians have shown their strong desire for EU integration, the government — with the opposition’s support — may be in a better bargaining position to get the association agreement signed quickly with more financial aid secured, if Yanukovych meets the terms of international lenders and the EU for signing the pact. And that means releasing Tymoshenko as well as a whole host of economic and political changes that would loosen the president’s grip on power.
Kyiv Post chief editor Brian Bonner can be reached at [email protected]
