Steven Pifer writes: It may be time for U.S. and EU officials to consult as to whether it is appropriate to consider lists of Ukrainian individuals who would be denied visas to visit the U.S.and EU member.
… Regrettably, the first two years of President [Viktor] Yanukovych’s tenure in office have seen a significant regression in democratic practices within Ukraine. That is unfortunate for the Ukrainian people, and it is blocking the strengthening of Ukraine’s relations with the European Union and the United States. EU officials have made clear, for example, that the signature of an EU association agreement with Ukraine depends on Kyiv taking certain steps, such as releasing former Prime Minister [Yulia] Tymoshenko from prison.
…It remains in the U.S. interest that Ukraine develop as a stable, independent, democratic, market-oriented state increasingly integrated into Europe and institutions such as the European Union … Democratic regression within Ukraine, however, impedes that country’s ability to draw closer to the West … with weaker relations with the West, Kyiv will find that is has less room for maneuver in its dealings with Moscow. Tough negotiations will likely become even more difficult.
Yanukovych only has to look north to Belarus and what happened to President [Alexander] Lukashenko once he had burned his bridges with the European Union and the United States following the December 2010 crackdown on opposition leaders and demonstrators. Facing a dire economic situation and with no hope for help from the West, Lukashenko struck a deal with Moscow that secured a lower price for gas and a loan from Russia—at the price of surrendering control of the Belarusian gas pipeline system to Gazprom.
…The U.S. government’s priority with regard to Ukraine now should be to encourage the Ukrainian government to make the right choices regarding the country’s democratic development. …To promote this objective, the U.S. government should, first of all, continue to underscore to Kyiv U.S. concerns about democratic regression and continue to remind the Ukrainian leadership that its internal political policies have a negative impact on its relationships with the United States and the West.
Second, the United States should keep the door open for a more positive relationship with Ukraine should Kyiv heed the message on democracy…Third, the United States should coordinate closely with the European Union so as to maximize the impact of Western policy on decisions by Yanukovych and the Ukrainian leadership…
What do these policies mean in practice? As one example, the Ukrainian leadership greatly desires high-level contact with Washington, which gives it a degree of political legitimacy. Yanukovych would dearly appreciate an invitation to the White House or the chance to host President [Barack] Obama in Kyiv.
The U.S. government should continue what appears to be a de facto policy of minimizing high-level meetings with Yanukovych. U.S. officials should inform Ukrainian officials that, as long as Kyiv imprisons opposition leaders and regresses on democracy, no meetings at the highest level will be possible.
…This approach does not mean freezing ties across the board. Normal diplomatic interaction should continue at most levels. The target should be the most senior leadership in Kyiv, those who are responsible for Ukraine’s democratic regression.
As for assistance programs, the U.S. government should carefully consider its priorities, especially as budget resources for Ukraine will be limited. U.S. assistance should aim to sustain civil society in Ukraine, which has made dramatic gains over the past 20 years. In this context, exchange programs that bring Ukrainians to the United States and Europe can play a major role. The U.S. government should also continue assistance programs to promote energy security, so that Ukraine can become less dependent on imported energy.
It may be time for U.S. and EU officials to consult as to whether it is appropriate to consider lists of Ukrainian individuals who would be denied visas to visit the United States and EU member states. Even the threat of this could send a forceful message to Kyiv and have a powerful effect on Yanukovych and the elite around him.
This is not a call for the type of isolation that the West has applied to Belarus. Ukraine has not yet regressed to that point. But the United States and European Union should seek effective ways to disabuse Yanukovych of the notion that he can pursue a more authoritarian course at home without repercussions for Kyiv’s relations with the West.
… Some Ukrainian officials likely will warn that this kind of approach by the United States and European Union will cause Ukraine’s leadership to turn toward Russia. Western officials should not be taken in by this. If Ukraine truly wants to join Europe, then its leadership must accept the democratic values that prevail in Europe. If the leadership is not prepared to adopt such values, then how can Europe and the West integrate Ukraine?
Moreover, Kyiv does not wish to fall too closely into Moscow’s orbit. Yanukovych does not want to compromise Ukrainian sovereignty; he wants to be the leader of a fully independent state. The Ukrainian elite and public likewise overwhelmingly support an independent and sovereign Ukrainian state. For the Ukrainian oligarchs—who control so much of the Ukrainian economy—the Russian model holds little appeal.
The overall goal of U.S. and European Union policy thus should be to crystallize in Yanukovych’s mind the following choice: He can have a more authoritarian political system, more difficult relations with the West, and a greatly weakened hand in dealing with Russia, or he can return to a more democratic approach and have a stronger relationship with the West and a balanced foreign policy. In the end, Yanukovych has reasons to opt for the latter course. The West should face him with the choice as clearly as possible.
Steven Pifer, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, is a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. The full transcript of his testimony can be found at https://archive.kyivpost.com/news/opinion/op_ed/detail/121746/
