Is he turning into a dove all of a sudden? Can we say that Moscow is now interested in de-escalation? I am afraid not.
First of all, Putin is not exactly known as someone whose words should be taken for their face value. So, why this case should be any different? We all have learned this hard way. In fact, he is not shying away from admitting once in a while that, well, he lied on some occasions before.
Most notable example is the one about “little green men” in Crimea. Now you see them, now you do not. They were not Russian military, but, wait, then all of a sudden they were. Let us actually listen to what he said this time. He said that Russian troops are withdrawn away from Ukraine’s borders. Agencies monitoring them say it is not so. Thought so. We were to expect more comments and explaining to come from Moscow. Something of a sort: we are going to withdraw those forces if… Ukraine does this and that. West does such and such. So, no withdrawal, same posturing, keeping military pressure on the border.
The referenda parts of his pronouncements were quickly understood for what they really were. Plausible deniability. That is he says that those referenda should be postponed. Separatists on the ground tell us they plan to go on with them. Putin then says: well, people spoke, do not blame me. Most people saw this bluff right away. It was funny to see some of the separatists confused and panicking initially – what does it mean that Putin says we should delay? But then the next morning there came announcements that those so-called “referenda” are still on. The reassuring message came from Kremlin enablers, explaining what Putin really wants.
There is little evidence to show that Putin is, indeed, retreating, that sanctions are biting, let alone, that he is capitulating. First, as it is known, any sanctions take time to have palpable effect. Even the most solid and wide-scale sanctions, not the sort of those applied to Russia so far. So, Moscow does not have a need to worry. At least for now. Second, Putin has bet too much on dealing with Ukraine now. It is about a return to a great power status, about recreating a Russia-dominated post-Soviet space, about showing the West who is the “master of the house.”
It is also, of course, about his ratings within Russia. So, Putin is clearly willing to sacrifice a lot financially to see his gamble in Ukraine to its successful end. Too much is at stake. There is a tactical shift, more in tone than in substance, in his stance on Ukraine’s presidential election that are coming up on May 25 step in a right direction. But let us pay attention to what he adds to this while saying that all constitutional right of Ukrainians should be granted. Basically, this is a redoubling on a standard list of Moscow’s conditions set for Ukraine – federalization, Russian language as an official one and more. So, there is not much of a change here, if at all. There is still plenty of room for Moscow to claim that these elections are illegitimate and to not recognize their results.
What is Putin really up to, then? He likes playing his game. He cherishes being the focus of the world’s attention. He enjoys making a step and waiting to see what other players do (or do not do). It does not look like he has a clear strategic plan, indeed, more of the tactical deliberations. He thinks that he has nothing to loose in this gamble, while he is not sure how much he would be able to gain. He is being opportunistic and situational. He makes a move and then lets everyone to try and decipher what it really meant. He is good in this and will be unless he is called to his bluff in a serious manner.
For right now Putin is satisfied with a status quo in Ukraine. He has gotten Crimea. And he has been to destabilize Ukraine and to get two of its regions – Donetsk and Luhansk – effectively out of Kyiv’s control. Not bad for starters. The real purpose behind his statement from May 7 is to fix this status quo for now. He wants to legitimize those separatist leaders in Donetsk and Luhansk when calling for Kyiv to sit down and talk to those people. But they are nothing but a bunch of criminal thugs. They do not represent anyone and came out of nowhere. People in those regions never saw them before and never knew their names. Why would Kyiv government (which was formed through a legitimate process in the parliament and consists of deputies elected by people of Ukraine) talk to those self-proclaimed “majors” and “governors”? Putin wants Kyiv to halt its anti-terror operation in the east of the country. But what responsible government is going to stop trying to re-establish law and order on its territory? Predictably, Kyiv has made it clear that no negotiations with terrorists are possible and that anti-terror operation is going to proceed. So Putin may claim that he is a peace-loving leader, while Ukrainian leaders are not. In the meantime, the status quo is retained.
This attempt by Putin to picture himself as someone who is genuinely interested in de-escalation is important part of the story. By pitching this he is talking to his domestic audience, people in Ukraine (both his supporters and those who might get confused by his dovish tone) and to the West. He is trying to make it harder for the West to proceed with more sanctions. This statement of his is, among other things, rallying call to the army of Putin apologists in the West who now would say: see, he is a reasonable guy, he wants to find a solution and interested in peaceful scenario.
Putin definitely wants more than just Donetsk and Luhansk regions. He talked of “New Russia” (“Novorossiya”) which is a much broader area than just those two. His plan is to divide Ukraine into halves and, perhaps, even more. Not necessarily to have them within Russian Federation, but surely to have them under Moscow’s control. Scholars argue as to what would be a more beneficial option for Moscow with regard to Ukraine. To actually incorporate some of those regions into Russia or to, rather, let them be within Ukraine, while continue to instigate unrest and destabilization there. Looks like Putin has not made his mind on this yet. He likes himselfhaving initiative and calling the shots. He believes that he has the cards and can decide on this later.
So, the statement by Vladimir Putin from May 7 a story of deception and propaganda, a smokescreen for his actual intentions. As it stands today this might mean a step towards an escalation, not the other way around.
Volodymyr Dubovyk is director of the Center for International Studies at the I. Mechnikov National University in Odessa.
