Judging
from amiable gesturing on both sides, the doublespeak about release of former Prime
Minister YuliaTymoshenko from prison, and not much more than resolutions and polite
admonishing concerning the authoritarian traps and crooked judiciary (“selective
prosecution”), the European Union negotiators seem to be undeterred from moving ahead with the signing of the Association
Agreement in Vilnius on Nov. 28.
And so,
what motivates them the most? Try this first: Europeans will benefit from
having an increasingly decent, liberal, democratic and prosperous country as
their neighbor.
If you
believe that this description will fit Ukraine any time soon, hold on to your
chair. President Viktor Yanukovych is not about to soften his grip or lose next
elections, which will be rigged as expected. He wants more power, not less. Imploring
how much he stands to gain by becoming a nice fellow is like blowing bubbles in
the wind.
Some well-wishers
have not grasped that Yanukovych is incompatible with the European Union. Nor
is he compatible with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who has no place for
over-ambitious vassals. The European choice is a clever decision made by
Ukraine’s president — for reasons unrelated to Ukraine’s national interest,
which is naturally oriented towards Europe.
Unlike
union with Russia, connection to the EU is calculated by Yanukovych and his
circle to avert an economic meltdown without losing their own feathers.
A plausible
reason for Europe’s interest in the Association Agreement with Ukraine could be
the expectation, especially from its eastern members, Poland and others, that
Russia becomes smaller without Ukraine in its sphere, and therefore less of a
threat to them. Valid as such a reckoning is, it was never sufficient for EU’s
original core members to define their attitudes towards Ukraine, much less to
form political and economic ties.
Despite
possible skepticism, consider now — improbable as it may sound to some – the
impact of climate change now under way across the globe on the decision nof
Europe’s forward-looking minds to establish an economic association with
Ukraine.
As manmade
carbon dioxide emissions are changing the climate and play havoc with
agriculture across the planet, the damage makes a joke out of conventional
notions of a growing economy to sustain population growth.F ood shortages are
already entering into the calculations of economic planners.
Not surprisingly,
Ukraine’s fabulous grain-producing capacity changes everything important for
Europe in the last hundred years or longer and, given some savvy in Kyiv, makes
Ukraine a real player and a valuable member in any geopolitical configuration,
in one format or another.
In the
background, there is America’s shrinking agricultural power, battered by unprecedented
high temperatures, droughts, ruinous winds beyond tornado alley, and
destructive flooding in its heartland and West. Massive forest fires are
stripping the country’s vegetation, fill hundreds of miles with thick smoke,
and make vast areas look like moonscape.
Melting
polar ice raises ocean water level that destroys the infrastructure in coastal
areas. Estimates of damage from total
polar ice melt now underway reach $60 trillion — approximately twice the
amount of money offshored by the world’s top 0.01 percent.
A report
released on Sept. 27 by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change is unlike any that preceded it, in spelling out the damage that can be
expected in the next 30 years and throughout this century.
Last year, the
Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting of more than 1,000 global leaders in
New York concluded that food, energy and water shortages could impact the
global economy in the next 16 years, unable to meet demands of growing
population. China has made a deal to use 5 percent of Ukraine’s territory over
50 years as its own agricultural extension. This also illustrates the desperate
financial bind of Ukraine’s government.
While the
media mention the findings, its commentators often reflect the misgivings of
the corporate world and skepticism that looks for faults in scientific
presentations. Media under-reporting is to be expected because media
conglomerates are part of the corporate community, in which money can be made
by betting on the outcomes, in a way similar to buying “calls” on artificially
depressed stocks while anticipating rise in price.
Politicians
are reluctant to be the bearers of bad news. How does the Yanukovych regime and
Ukraine’s top 0.01 percent fit into the picture in the context of arcane international
politics of climate change? Perhaps Europe’s best minds have figured out
something we don’t know. The EU’s decision concerning the Association Agreement
is still at the tipping point.
Very
likely, Yanukovych and his circle have a good idea why the European Union is
eager to sign the Association Agreement. They seem confident that this deal
will be signed on Nov. 28 by both sides regardless whether or not Tymoshenko is
released from prison.
Boris Danik is a retired Ukrainian-American
living in North Caldwell, New Jersey.
