Currently, Iran is under economic pressure from international
sanctions that came as a result of serious political disputes between
Teheran and the West over nuclear research. Now, the US and EU have
announced that they will up sanctions against Russia in relation
to its unauthorized invasion of Ukraine. China has declared its
support of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, which suggests that
there is international consensus on this issue.
At first,
sanctions against Iran were clearly aimed at weakening the country’s
energy sector by cutting off the oil trade, then by denying access to
the international financial system, that is, to currency reserves.
They also included travel restrictions on individuals connected to
human rights violations and a ban on arms trade and investments in
Iran.
The targeted implementation of these sanctions on the part of
the United States, United Nations and the European Union resulted in a 50 percent cut in oil export revenues,
growing unemployment and the depreciation of Iran’s currency by
more than half. In the end, Iran held a democratic presidential
election and dropped its nuclear research program.
The
situation in Russia is very similar. Since its invasion of Crimea on
March 3, the ruble has fallen significantly and $11.6 billion had to be
spent to maintain it. The implementation of US sanctions will not
have much political and military-political fallout on Russia, as the
US represents an insignificant share of Russia’s foreign trade and
foreign investment.
The EU
sanctions, on the other hand, will have more of an impact, as the EU is
a serious trading partner for Russia—nearly 30 percent of its gas and 50 percent of its oil is sold to the EU. Europe is also its main foreign investor.
If the EU starts
restricting trade with Russia, cuts investments and freezes Russian
assets, this will have a major effect on the country’s economy, and
on its financial, social and other export-oriented industries. This
is likely to lead to the same development and recession
for Russia as it did for Iran.
Halyna Zavoritnya, Lyubov Akulenko, Dmytro Naumenko are experts of Centre UA, a non-government organization.
