Yanukovych could say something like this:

“It is time to drop the fiction that Ukraine has an independent judicial system; nobody believes it – so nobody will believe Tymoshenko’s conviction is for a real crime. In fact, it’s time to scrap the system we have now and establish police, prosecutors and judges who are truly insulated from political pressures. It can be done, it has been done in many nations and we will copy the best examples to rid the judiciary of corruption! Moreover, speaking of corruption, I have decided that – given all the questions about how I got control of a multimillion-dollar riverfront estate named Mezhyhyria, I have decided to return it to the state! Let these two acts – freeing Tymoshenko and getting rid of Mezhyhyria – be the start of a true cleansing process for the nation in 2012! No citizen, including the president, is above the law!”

OK, it’s wishful thinking.

It appears that, with the unexpected Dec. 30 transfer of Tymoshenko from a jail in Kyiv to a prison in Kharkiv, the two-time prime minister — who is now leading Yanukovych in the polls — will not be getting her freedom anytime soon.

Besides, apparently under Ukraine’s archaic, complex and Soviet-era laws, only decriminalization of the offense for which she was convicted — a Soviet-era abuse of office charge — is enough to allow her to get on the ballot. Apparently, not even a presidential pardon or amnesty will do the trick. And the decriminalization law failed in parliament once, but could be resurrected again. Since the president’s party controls the Verkhovna Rada, his support would be decisive.

But it appears that Yanukovych will not be doing the right thing on New Year’s Eve. This means 2012 is more than likely going to be a tough year for Ukraine.

Yanukovych’s continued march toward authoritarianism is going to ruin the nation’s relations with the West while weakening his bargaining power with Russia.

Already, the Kremlin is salivating at the prospect of gaining control of Ukraine’s gas transport system, through which 80 percent of Europe-bound gas from Russia goes. Russia’s Gazprom chief Alexei Miller has even named a figure — $20 billion. Such a sale, if coupled with cheap Russian gas, may suit the short-term financial interests (they don’t appear to have any other) of the industrialist-oligarchs who surround Yanukovych and who own most of the nation’s top factories, steel mills and chemical plants.

Instead, Yanukovych will probably just refresh last year’s speech – mixing in upbeat talk about the Euro 2012 soccer championships in Ukraine next summer, about projected economic growth, about the great stability he has brought to the nation . He may even end with a bold declaration that the 2012 parliamentary elections will be the most democratic ever.

Here is the president’s address from last year. He might only change the year and keep the rest:

“My dear fellow citizens!

2010 has been a difficult but happy year for us.

We managed to do the most important thing – to change the situation for the better and overcome hopelessness.

Now we enter the New Year 2011, the year of the 20th anniversary of Independence of Ukraine.

This will be the time, when we build a solid foundation for all the changes and transformations we have designed together.Those, we have been waiting for and those we have been striving for on our way to common victory.

In the coming year we will lay the foundation for prosperity of every family and every person in Ukraine.

2011 will be an important step towards prosperity.For our honest and hard-working people deserve a decent life. For our children deserve a happy childhood and happy future.For our parents, older friends, who have been building the Independence and creating the wealth of our country, are entitled to spend the fall and winter of their lives in an atmosphere of warmth, respect and prosperity.

And therefore, we will all be working hard next year for that to happen.

I wish things were quick and easy.But even on the New Year’s Eve I have no right to tell tales, so I will say it as it is.We will have a lot of work.But we also have lots of energy.We have a lot of faith in our state.We have lots of hopes in our strength and God’s help.

And with that we enter the New Year.And with that we will win again.And we will be happy.

I wish health, good, and happiness to all the people in Ukraine and the world.

Happy New Year, dear fellow citizens!”

Kyiv Post chief editor Brian Bonner can be reached at [email protected]