The most dramatic gathering of the United Nations Security Council since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis is to begin at 10 am EST today. The United States requested this emergency session to make the case that Russia is an “aggressor state” that should be sanctioned or possibly expelled from the world organization.
The 15-member Council is to hear evidence that proves Russia is the first founding member and nuclear power since WWII to break the UN’s founding principle – that no country can invade or try to change the borders of another by military force.
It is easy to be cynical about the UN or to argue that Putin’s predations are old news, but presenting an airtight case to a global audience is a historical and significant step and hopefully marks the beginning of controlling the world’s most deceitful and dangerous nation.
Simply scolding Russia won’t cut it this time. Americans have definitive evidence as to how Russia and its military conceived and executed the invasion and occupation of Ukraine in 2014 as well as the hybrid war against it ever since, contrary to the UN Charter. Russia has denied this for years, saying the occupations were spontaneous uprisings by aggrieved Russian-speaking citizens in Ukraine. But that is false.
The Kremlin has hidden behind the Wagner group, and special forces or other mercenary and militia units to do its dirty work, then lied whenever confronted. Now the US and NATO have gathered satellite, internet, and intelligence data, along with detailed on-the-ground information drawn from reports out of eastern Europe, that prove the Kremlin is an “aggressor state”.
For example, an independent report, issued by an organization called Civic Association Security and Cooperation in Ukraine, details the participation of the Russian Federation Armed Forces in the armed aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and 2015, based mostly on Russian social media and public sources. The 456-page report names Russian regiments, soldiers, militias, tactical units, private armies, equipment, mercenaries, special operations commandos, and paramilitary organizations who waged war inside Ukraine’s territory.
It identifies Russian operatives by name, rank, serial number, birth dates, affiliation, and includes photographs, tweets, social media posts, emails, badges, and written documents. The UN emergency session is being ridiculed by Russian diplomats over what they deemed unjustified Western fears.
But, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the American Ambassador to the United Nations said on ABC:
“Our voices are unified in calling for the Russians to explain themselves. We’re going to go in the room prepared to listen to them, but we’re not going to be distracted by their propaganda, and we’re going to be prepared to respond to any disinformation that they attempt to spread during this meeting.“
Proving that Russia is an “aggressor state” would constitute grounds to boot the country out of the United Nations and could also lead to designating it as a “terrorist state”. Obviously, Russia will deny all allegations and use its veto, as will China, to avert measures requiring a pullback. But the Americans are also expected to argue that Moscow cannot be allowed to take over the chairmanship of the Security Council tomorrow (January 31) for a one-month rotation based on evidence that Putin plans to further invade Ukraine sometime in February.
Whatever happens – obstruction by Russia and China at the Security Council or failure to block Russia’s chairmanship of the Security Council -- the action should shift to the UN General Assembly where Russia and China have no vetoes. This means a debate and vote could take place about Russia’s military misadventures and, if that happens, that is a very, very big deal.
While General Assembly resolutions are not binding, condemnation and debate would cost Moscow prestige, access, and power. UN points a gun that doesn’t work and The Kremlin’s thumb in fist is confrontative Russia is a scourge. The lie must be put to Putin’s assertions that Ukraine is the aggressor and that it is not a sovereign nation.
Ukraine’s military buildup is defensive, not offensive. As for its sovereignty, Ukraine’s independence was recognized by Russia in 1991 after it left the Soviet Union and the sanctity of its borders was guaranteed by Russia in 1994 when it signed the Budapest Memorandum with the United States and the United Kingdom, following Ukraine’s transfer of its nuclear arsenal to Moscow.
That transfer, pushed by the Americans and British, has been a colossal mistake imposed on Ukraine, as has been the fact that the two allies reneged on their Budapest Memorandum guarantees after Russia’s 2014 invasion.
The UN can no longer ignore Russia. It has refused to stand down despite 100 meetings with the US, NATO, and allies. Allowing a second Russian invasion to happen will upend the United Nations itself, an outcome that would please Putin no end. And designating Russia as an “aggressor state” will pave the way for reparations. Estimated damage to Ukraine so far is an estimated $39 billion alone, not including 14,000 casualties, the loss of income, the cost to resettle two million refugees who fled since 2014, or the billions spent to defend itself for the past years in order to prevent Russia from invading further.
The UN initiative is part of America’s multi-pronged approach. The U.S. has prepared crippling sanctions and awaits a formal response from Moscow to its proposals on European security, delivered in writing last week, that include inspections of U.S. ballistic missile-defense sites in Poland and Romania and mutual constraints on military maneuvers and operations. A pre-emptive condemnation by the UN would represent a massive setback for him and generate unrest at home and among his cronies. That’s why the Americans are correct to bring this to the court of world opinion. This is the UN’s moment of truth.
Russia must be stopped or the world order will be in tatters.
Published in cooperation with the author and her Diane Francis Newsletter on America and the World https://dianefrancis.substack.com/about
Op-ed disclaimer: The Kyiv Post is not responsible or liable for any content in this article, which expresses the personal viewpoint of the author only.
