Even the prospect of becoming an outcast dictator in the world’s eyes doesn’t seem to have much influence on Yanukovych.
According to the European Union’s ambassador to Ukraine, Jose Manuel Pinto Teixeira, a free-trade deal due to be signed in December is in doubt – even the Dec. 19 Ukraine-EU summit might not even happen.
If it’s true, Ukraine will be deprived of trade privileges with 500 million potential consumers who have much higher incomes than Ukrainians do. It also means that traveling to EU countries without a visa will be a distant dream.
Yanukoyych, meanwhile, did not press his ruling Party of Regions to decriminalize the abuse-of-office law for which Tymoshenko has been convicted and sentenced to seven years in prison.
Instead, Yanukovych supports investigations into other alleged crimes by Tymoshenko.
By now, besides her conviction for exceeding her authority as prime minister in signing a 2009 gas deal with Russia she is suspected of illegally using money that the state received from the sale of quotas for greenhousegases under the KyotoProtocol. She is also the target of an investigation into the state purchase ofcars ofemergency medical service, as well as embezzlement of budget fundsandtax evasiontotaling more than $5.8 million. She is now, according to prosecutors, a suspect in the 1996 murder of member of parliament Yevhen Shcherban.
Why is Yanukovych acting so stubbornly and uncompromisingly?
The answer is simple: Heand his teamrealize that the release of Tymoshenko will significantly change thepolitical situation, namely, in terms of the future 2012 parliamentary election. If she gets back into power, Yanukovych knows that he will not be safe from criminal investigation into his activities. He may even end up in the same place as she is now – jail – for his third sitting, if she gets her way.
The Party of Regions may allow the transfer of power voluntarily, if they get immunity from prosecution – which appears to be the same deal that ex-Presidents Leonid Kuchma and Viktor Yushchenko got for leaving power in 2005 and 2010, respectively.
After all the humiliation Tymoshenko has endured, only revenge will likely satisfy her.
It is doubtful that any amount of international political pressure will sway Yanukovych.
While it sounds cynical, this state of affairs satisfies not merely Tymoshenko’s opponents. But it also may be a reason for silent cheering from Olexandr Turchynov and Nataliya Korolevska, leaders of the Bloc of Yulia Tymoshenko, who will now assume leadership positions in the biggest opposition faction in parliament.
Ex-Foreign Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, with his “Front Zmin” or “Front for Change” also increases his chances to enter Verkhovna Rada in 2012 with a stronger following than if Tymoshenko is free and campaigning hard.
This leaves only the closest relatives and friends of Ukraine’s once most powerful woman to support her and hope for a miracle.
Anton Postnyy is a freelance journalist in Kyiv.
