The coup d’etat (also known as a putsch or overthrow) seemed to put an end to the Soviet empire, but in reality, it did not. The empire is still very much alive in the minds of many Russians. The famous Russian writer Anton Chekhov once wrote that if in the first act of the play there is the gun hanging on the wall, then it must be fired by the end of the play. According to Russian “tradition,” it will likely be in August.
Interestingly, some of the Russian army brigades of the new Russian South Defense Command are already planning huge field exercises, just as we witnessed in 2008 before the Russian invasion of Georgia. The territory of this command borders with Georgia. But it also borders with Ukraine, more specifically with the Donbass, that part of Ukraine which has a population that was always the base for traditional communist ideology.
Donbass oligarchs rule in Ukraine for now and the former governor of Donetsk Oblast, Viktor Yanukovych is their president. At least this is the common belief. Meanwhile, there are some irregularities that contradict this simple concept of the presidency of Yanukovych.
First of all, the oligarchs from Donbass and across Ukraine need European integration. Access to Russian markets is important, but European expansion for Ukrainian business is a priority. Nevertheless, Yanukovych pursues ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s show trial. [Tymoshenko is charged with abusing her authority as prime minister in reach a 2009 gas deal with Russia and was arrested on Aug. 5 on charges of contempt of court.]
Since the [Tymoshenko] hearings started, the damage to Ukraine’s image is difficult to ignore and underestimate. Yanukovych has already lost an invitation to the United States and Brussels, the European Union administrative capital, is signaling that even if a free trade agreement will be signed, its ratification will be “very difficult.” That’s diplomatic code for a more direct “forget it.”
Since the hearings started, the damage to Ukraine’s image is difficult to ignore and underestimate. Yanukovych has already lost an invitation to the United States and Brussels, the European Union administrative capital, is signaling that even if a free trade agreement will be signed, its ratification will be “very difficult.” That’s diplomatic code for a more direct “forget it.”
By pursuing the Tymoshenko trial, Yanukovych, or more precisely, first deputy state prosecutor Renat Kuzmin, is destroying Ukraine’s European integration chances, and is acting against the best interests of Ukrainian’s oligarchs.
Second, the Tymoshenko trial has destroyed Yanukovych’s relations with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Recently Russian President Dmitry Medvedev also canceled his next visit to Ukraine, and quotas for imports of Ukrainian steel pipes are now revised — the start of a new trade war.
Yanukovych is acting either like there is no tomorrow, or he knows that European integration will never happen anyway. In any case, he may suspect that if political realities suddenly shift in Russia, warmingrelations with Moscow’s current duo won’t matter anymore.
Third, Yanukovych has canceled the military parade on the 20th Anniversary of Ukrainian independence. Maybe he doesn’t want to give the opposition a chance to express its feelings directly to his face. The only theory that really doesn’t hold any water is the official version of the cancellation, that the saved money will be used for public good. The government had budgeted Hr 177 million already for this event. The idea ofthe Ukrainian bureaucracy and Party of Regions missing such a lucrative money grab opportunity like this for the sake of supporting public social programs is something strikingly rare in Ukraine’s present-day reality.
Note that Yanukovych did not hesitate to spend Hr 100 million for the Formula 1 speedboat competition, which has no public good dimension whatsoever. In any case, money is not the issue here.
Either Yanukovych is afraid of the parade, or the pro-Russian talking head of the Party of Regions, Vadim Kolesnichenko, is right when he says that “there is nothing to celebrate on Aug. 24. This statement even triggered outrage inside the Party of Regions, and one of its sponsors, Vasyl Gorbal, owner of UkrGazBank, spoke out against Kolesnichenko’s statement. The resulting knee-jerk reaction of the Ukrainian regime was an audit of Gorbal’s business.
Fourth, the government canceled the 5th International Forum of Ukrainians, which was scheduled to take place in Kyiv to mark the 20th anniversary of independence.
What are the reasons for all of these events?
Yanukovych may be trying to suppress Tymoshenko, because of his own vindictive mentality and because of his fear of the opposition.
Yanukovych may be trying to suppress Tymoshenko, because of his own vindictive mentality and because of his fear of the opposition.
The parade may have been canceled due to Yanukovych’s own safety concerns or because he wants to avoiding offering a staging ground for another mini-Orange Revolution [the peaceful uprising that overturned a 2004 presidential election rigged for Yanukovych].
The World Ukrainian Congress may have been canceled because Ukraine failed to prepare it or because the president is mitigating the opportunity for a gathering of patriotic Ukrainians and diaspora supporters.
However, everything becomes very logical and clear if one assumes that plans are in the works to attempt to restore something like the U.S.S.R., and that Yanukovych is part of the plot. This is pure speculation and conjecture, a kind of intellectual exercise to derive a common denominator for seemingly unrelated and difficult-to-explain events.
For instance:
· According to Tymoshenko’s own intelligence, the Ukrainian regime plans to sentence her before Ukrainian Independence Day on Aug. 24. Maybe they just want to get things all wrapped up before restarting work in Brussels after vacations.
· A group of very well-informed bureaucrats from the education and science spheres have just signed а letter to Yanukovych, asking for more repression against corruption. In today’s Ukraine, alleged “corruption” is used as the reason to prosecute the opposition.
·Yanukovych may be trying to suppress Tymoshenko, because of his own vindictive mentality and because of his fear of the opposition.
If there will be some massive surrender of Ukrainian independence before Aug. 24, a military parade on this day would be exactly the wrong thing to hold. The same applies to the World Congress of Ukrainians in Kyiv.
· If there will be some massive surrender of Ukrainian independence before Aug. 24, a military parade on this day would be exactly the wrong thing to hold. The same applies to the World Congress of Ukrainians in Kyiv.
· If we speculate that there will be drastic changes, Yanukovych will not depend on Ukrainian oligarchs anymore, because his source of power will be in Moscow and not Donbass. If so, he doesn’t need to care about the oligarchs’ Western aspirations or about the whole European integration agenda.
Walter Derzko is a consultant, lecturer and business owner in Toronto, Canada. Andriy Zhalko-Tytarenko is president and managing director for AZ Global Research & Engineering, Ltd., in Calgary, Canada.
