If I were him, and I am glad that I am not, I would hightail
it to Brussels, plead for forgiveness and put the association agreement agenda
he spurned in Vilnius before parliament right away.
I think that’s his only way at the moment. He has, belatedly,
seemed to recognize as much when he talked on Dec. 2 about going to back to the
European Union and trying to restart negotiations for an association agreement.
It may not be enough.
He can continue to tough it out and hope the protesters will
go away. They may or may not, but their anger
with him will stay – right through the January 2015 presidential elections that
are now right around the corner. Yanukovych knows he must win those elections
or face the prospect of going to prison, like his defeated 2010 rival, ex-Prime
Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.
In this high-stakes game, the momentum seems to be with the
people on the streets at the moment.
Yanukovych can crack down on the protesters, as police did
on Nov. 30, but that will only bring him more isolation and more protesters on
the street – as people demonstrated on Dec. 1. Opposition leader Arseniy
Yatseniuk says every police crackdown will inspire more protesters, and he
seems right. For the moment, it looks like Yanukovych doesn’t have the appetite
for violence.
Force will only bring him international isolation and
condemnation. Ukraine is not only not Russia, it is not Uzbekistan, Belarus,
Kazakhstan or Azerbaijan or any of the other former Soviet republis where
dictators rule by fear and violence.
When hundreds of thousands of your citizens are willing to
risk their physical safety to get rid of you, your political career is
imperiled.
When they’re willing to do it day after day, your political
career is on life support.
When they’re calling for you to serve a third term in
prison, look out.
Yanukovych’s three most recent big blunders:
·
Telling Ukrainians from the start of his
presidency that the nation is moving towards integration with the West and all
that entails – democracy, rule of law, human rights – and then presiding over a
government that goes the opposite way.
·
Coming home from the Eastern Partnership Summit
in Vilnius, Lithuania, on Nov. 29, a day before police clean the streets with
the blood of demonstrators. Thankfully, no fatalities so far. Someone down the
chain of command may take the fall, but it strains credibility to think that
the president didn’t know about or sanction the crackdown, given the political nature
of the EuroMaidan protests. Either that or the nation’s interior minister is dumb and venal.
·
Tolerating what looks to be paid provocateurs who
created disruptions that seem tailor-made to shift the blame to the peaceful
protesters. It’s not working.
However, the problems with Yanukovych’s administration run
deep and have ever since he took power in 2010. He is part of a troubled past
that Ukraine cannot escape yet, but needs to in order to move forward as a
nation.
Unfortunately, the West allowed him to monopolize power in
his first year of power without challenging him.
Nothing better could have been expected from an
administration led by Yanukovych, who served two terms in prison and whose
allies tried to rig the presidential election in 2004, triggering the successful
Orange Revolution.
And nothing better could have been expected from Prime
Minister Mykola Azarov, who was implicated in numerous allegations of
wrongdoing more than 13 years ago on the “Melnychenko tapes” – acts of alleged
corruption while he was in the service of ex-President Leonid Kuchma.
Unfortunately, like so many allegations of crime in which high-level
politicians in Ukraine are implicated, the cases are never investigated or
punished.
Whether they are found guilty or vindicated in court, we’ll never know as long as they are in power. But we do now that people who commit crimes with impunity are emboldened to
keep doing it.
So Ukraine as a nation tries to move forward, but keeps
getting snapped back by its inability to root out corruption and create
institutions run by people who put the public interest first, who seek justice,
transparency and rule of law.
Street power that we are witnessing now is inspiring, but it is also dangerous for the nation and no way
to govern. Already, Ukraine’s economy is likely to suffer because of the
turmoil.
So far, protesters have blocked the Cabinet of Ministers,
taken over Kyiv city hall and retaken the main square, Maidan Nezalezhnosti, in defiance of a court ban on public demonstrations.
Parliament is today considering legislation to force Azarov’s government out. If it
fails, the anger will mount.
Yanukovych must know this and find another prime minister, a
compromise choice outside of the pro-presidential Party of Regions. Then he
must sign the association agreement with no reservations or new conditions and
hope that the EU is willing to do the same.
This will not guarantee his survival, but it will let him — and possibly the nation — step back from the brink.
Kyiv Post chief editor
Brian Bonner can be reached at [email protected].
