Kyiv hosts the 12th annual Kyiv Security Forum on April 11-12, held since 2007 by the Open Ukraine Foundation, which is chaired by the country’s former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk.
This year, the forum is welcoming 1,000 speakers and guests from over 20 nations, as well as top Ukrainian officials such as President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman.
The forum this year hasthe title “Restless Wave: The Strategic Choice of Ukraine and the West,” referring to the title of a book written by the late U.S. senator John McCain, a strong supporter of Ukraine.
The forum, which is taking place just 10 days ahead of the second round of the presidential election on April 21, is focused on foreign policy and the security priorities of the rival candidates — incumbent President Petro Poroshenko, and comedian Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
At the event, the Kyiv Post polled attendees on what changes to the security situation in Ukraine they expect after the elections.
Iryna Bekeshkina, sociologist, director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation
Iryna Bekeshkina, sociologist and director of the Democratic Initiatives Foundation (Ukraine Crisis Media Center)
“The period immediately after Election Day will surely be very tense in terms of the security situation, definitely. There will be a dire demand for new appointments (by the president-elect) to the country’s top security and defense posts. There will be intense struggle between various interest groups seeking to promote their own candidates for these offices. I believe this period will be a very difficult time for Ukraine’s security.”
Andriy Teteruk, lawmaker with the People’s Front fraction, Donbas war veteran
“There is a real threat of a worsening security situation immediately after the elections. Much depends on whether the Russian president (Vladimir Putin) is ready to recommence the military component of his aggressive foreign policy. And what must be taken into account is the weakening of the presidential command chain for engaging the Armed Forces. The threat is very real.”
Marko Mihkelson, lawmaker with Estonia’s Reform Party
Marko Mihkelson, lawmaker with Estonia’s Reform Party, during the Kyiv Security Forum on Apr. 11, 2019.
“I don’t believe that there will be any major change, even if (Volodymyr Zelenskiy) wins or (Petro) Poroshenko retains his position. Because the major change has already happened during the 2014 events here in Kyiv. And whoever would like to change the principle by violating Ukraine’s security will face strong opposition from the majority of the people.”
Olga Aivazovska, head of Opora election watchdog
Olga Aivazovska, head of Opora election watchdog, shows a whiteboard in her office in Kyiv showing schemes for vote buying used during the election campaign on March 13, 2019. (Oleg Petrasiuk)
“I believe the security situation is still difficult right now, since Ukraine has not yet eliminated all the dire challenges it faces. Future developments in many ways depend on who is going to be the next defense minister, the chief of the SBU security service, the prosecutor general, and the foreign minister. The key nominations can’t happen until the parliament elections, so it makes no sense to speculate about this. But this pause must be short, because it is a very serious risk to national security.”
Brian Whitmore, Senior Fellow and Director of the Russia Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
Brian Whitmore, Senior Fellow and Director of the Russia Program at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA)
“Making any predictions regarding the security situation is very hard, because in the case of at least one candidate, we don’t know what he is going to do. If (Volodymyr) Zelenskiy wins, the security situation could stay the same, or get better, or get worse, — depending a lot on what he actually does. But uncertainty is always harmful for security.”
Mattia Nelles, Foreign and Security Policy Fellow at the Center for Liberal Modernity in Berlin
Foreign and Security Policy Fellow at the Center for Liberal Modernity and editor of “Ukraine Verstehen”, Berlin
“It all depends on Vladimir Putin. He will want to test a new president, the chances of this seem high. In terms of Ukraine’s security, I hope that the possible new president will remain as determined to defend Ukraine’s sovereignty as the old one.”
