For a while there, it looked like the New England Patriots were in trouble. Tom Brady was suspended for the first four games of the 2016 NFL regular season; if the Patriots struggled during his absence, they’d have to scramble just to make the playoffs. But it didn’t go down that way. New England won three of those four games, Brady returned with a vengeance, and now the NFL betting odds at Bovada have the Patriots at +240 to win Super Bowl LI.
As much as people love to hate the Evil Empire, the Patriots are still one of the most popular teams in the country, and Brady does have those four championship rings. But now the Pats have a new problem: TE Rob Gronkowski has a herniated disc in his back, and he’ll be out indefinitely after surgery. Fellow TE Martellus Bennett has been playing through ankle and shoulder injuries, and WR Julian Edelman has a chronic foot problem, so who knows how long Brady and head coach Bill Belichick can keep this Super Bowl train on the tracks.
If the Patriots are too risky at +240, how about the Dallas Cowboys? They’re second on the Super Bowl futures market at +400, but they’ve got the best record in the NFL, not to mention the best offense with rookies Dak Prescott at quarterback and Ezekiel Elliott at running back. Yes, they get to play behind one of the top offensive lines in the game, but Prescott (86.0) still leads the league in QBR through Week 12, one spot ahead of Brady (85.0).
There are a handful of other quality Super Bowl LI contenders worth a look, including two recent champions, the Seattle Seahawks (+750) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (+1200). But what if we told you that the best team in the NFL was the Atlanta Falcons (+1600)? Okay, stop laughing; Atlanta’s red-hot offense is so good, it makes up for what the Falcons lack defensively. Matt Ryan is third in the league with an 82.5 QBR, and he might be named MVP when all is said and done.
Still not a believer? The Falcons might not have any Super Bowls, but they’re on top of the weak NFC South, and at +1600, they’d pay out nearly seven times as much as New England at +240. Are the Patriots seven times as likely to win the Super Bowl as Atlanta? We’ll leave that for you to decide.
