Ukraine’s GDP in 2018 is expected to grow by 3.1 percent amid 9.5 percent inflation (December over December) and the growth is expected to slightly slow in 2019 to 3.0 percent amid 7.4 percent inflation, according to an updated consensus forecast released by Ukraine’s Ministry of Economic Development and Trade on Sept. 24.
The growth of the Ukrainian economy is expected to accelerate to 3.1 percent and 3.9 percent in 2020-2021, respectively, it said.
In their earlier forecast in April 2018, experts projected an increase in Ukraine’s GDP by 3.2 percent amid 9.7 percent inflation in 2018 and by 3.1 percent amid 8 percent inflation in 2019. According to the April forecast, the economic growth was projected at 3.3 percent in 2020 and at 4 percent in 2021.
Interviewed by the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade, analysts also expect the weakening of the hryvnia by the end of this year to Hr 29.6 per U.S. dollar and further to Hr 30.6 per U.S. dollar by the end of 2019. According to their estimates, insignificant weakening of the national currency will continue in the next two years: to Hr 32 per U.S. dollar by the end of 2020 and further to 33.2 per U.S. dollar by the end of 2021.
The minimum and maximum estimates for the forex rate are Hr 29.4 and Hr 34 per U.S. dollar in 2019, respectively; Hr 30.2 and Hr 37 per U.S. dollar in 2020, and Hr 30.7 and Hr 40 per U.S. dollar in 2021.
As was earlier reported, economic growth in Ukraine in 2017 accelerated to 2.5 percent from 2.3 percent in 2016, while inflation accelerated to 13.7 percent from 12.4 percent.
