J.P. Morgan has downgraded the forecast of real GDP growth in Ukraine in 2021 to 4.5% from 5.6% in the April forecast, while in 2022 the country’s economy is expected to grow by 5%, follows from the materials EMEA Emerging Markets report, which is available to Interfax-Ukraine.
According to them, J.P. Morgan predicts average annual inflation in Ukraine at 9% in 2021 with a further decline to 7.3% in 2022.
At the same time, at the end of this year, inflation is expected at 8.7%, and its peak will be in September – 10.5%, follows from the materials of EMEA Emerging Markets report.
J.P. Morgan expects that the hryvnia exchange rate in October-December 2021 will be at Hr 27.50/$1, in January-March 2022 – Hr 28/$1, in April-June – Hr 28.50/$1.
At the same time, J.P. Morgan envisages an increase in the key policy rate of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) from the existing 8% per annum to 8.5% at the next revision on Sept. 9, and in the first quarter of 2022 – to 9% with a further increase to 9.25% in the second quarter.
The balance of payments deficit in 2021 is expected at 1.7% of GDP, next year – at 3.5% of GDP, the analysts said.
