The J.P. Morgan Chase investment bank has radically revised its estimates of Ukraine’s economic growth in 2020, giving the Ukrainian economy what is probably the most optimistic forecast around.
The prognosis isn’t good, but it could be much worse.
Just five months ago, before the coronavirus pandemic hit the economies of countries around the globe, J.P. Morgan forecast that Ukraine’s gross domestic product (GDP) would grow by 3.6%.
Now, the New York-based bank’s analysts say that, if Ukraine signs an $8-billion loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund in the second quarter of the year, the country’s GDP will still decrease, but only by 2.6% over the year, according to a report obtained by Interfax-Ukraine on March 30.
GDP will decrease in the first half of 2020, but the situation won’t deteriorate if Ukraine contains this decline in July-December, according to the report.
“Ukraine is facing a strong external shock and a halt in domestic production,” the report states.
The bank also claims that Ukraine’s state budget deficit will increase from 2% to 4.7% of GDP this year, and nominal GDP will reach Hr 4 trillion ($142.9 billion) by the end of the year, which is almost $18 billion less than expected.
Despite such seeming negativity, J.P. Morgan’s forecast is the most optimistic among other macroeconomic prognoses from the Ukrainian government and experts.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmygal, for example, predicts that the economy will contract by 4.8% in 2020. He expressed certainty that the Ukrainian economy won’t be able to survive a long-term quarantine.
“Ukraine is not a rich country that can afford to spend half of the year not working and watching TV on the couch,” Shmygal said on March 30 during a talk show on the ICTV channel.
That same day, the Economy Ministry published its new macroeconomic prognosis for the country: GDP would fall by 3.9%, the unemployment rate would grow to 9.4% (instead of the 8.1% predicted before) and real wages would fall by 0.3%.
Additionally, the value of Ukraine’s national currency, the hryvnia, would fall to Hr 29.5 per dollar, Hr 2.5 less than had been previously forecast. Inflation would accelerate to 8.7%, compared to the expected 5.5%, the ministry predicted.
“I can’t call it optimistic or pessimistic,” Shmygal said of the prognosis. “It is a calculation.”
At the same time, if the national quarantine is extended for several more months, Ukraine’s GDP could fall by 9% and the hryvnia might depreciate to Hr 35 per $1, according to a joint statement of the Union of Ukrainian Entrepreneurs, the European Business Association and other business associations.
