Sound economic interest means Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich will stick to pursuit of a place in Europe's mainstream despite the West's anger at the jailing of his opposition rival Yulia Tymoshenko, analysts say.
The question is: will it still be on offer?
The former Soviet republic appeared on Wednesday to be standing again at an East-West fork in the road in terms of its future orientation after a trial which the European Union and the United States say was politically motivated.
On the face of it, EU condemnation of the seven-year sentence imposed on Tymoshenko could alienate a leader who has already tilted policy towards Moscow and push him into the Kremlin’s arms.
But while Yanukovich has taken important steps to improve relations with Russia, notably granting a 25-year extension to its Black Sea fleet in Crimea, he has resisted overtures to join a Russia-led customs union and has stressed European integration as a policy priority.
Most analysts say he will hope to ride out the EU’s displeasure, possibly appeasing European leaders by finding a way to secure Tymoshenko’s early release, and press ahead with steps towards a trade deal with the bloc despite risking the ire of Russia — the main supplier of gas to Ukraine and Europe.
The creation of a free trade zone with the EU, a key part of a wider association agreement, holds out huge opportunity for Ukraine, an exporter of steel, chemicals and grain, and for the industrialists who are important backers of Yanukovich.
"The Free Trade Zone with the EU will bring Ukraine in every year $30 billion against $9 billion from the customs union," analyst Taras Berezovets of Berta Communications said.
The choice is clear for the men who stand behind Yanukovich, he added.
SELECTIVE JUSTICE
But much still depends on how the European Union reacts as a bloc in the coming weeks, commentators said.
EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, in a tough message on Tuesday, said the Tymoshenko trial smacked of "selective justice".
It had profound implications for "conclusion of the Association Agreement, our political dialogue and our cooperation more broadly," she said.
On Wednesday she amplified on her position, saying the EU should keep negotiating a trade pact with Ukraine despite the jailing of Tymoshenko, but should not sign the deal unless Kiev shows a commitment to shared values.
"I believe we should not walk away from the technical negotiations but continue them with the aim of having before us on the table, a document which makes it clear to both sides what is possible — and also what will be lost," Ashton said.
"But we can only sign such an agreement if we are convinced that the Ukrainian leadership believes in the values on which it is based, and is committed to upholding," she said.
One Kiev-based EU diplomat said members of the 27-state bloc were re-assessing policy towards Ukraine and this would soon be spelled out to the Yanukovich leadership.
The Ukrainian leader is himself scheduled to visit Brussels on Oct. 20 when the diplomat said he would hear "some unfiltered language" from European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.
As things stand, the two sides are scheduled to hold a summit in December for conclusion of an association agreement.
This now, however, appears to be in jeopardy since Tymoshenko’s jailing means it will not secure ratification by parliaments in several EU member states or by the European Parliament itself.
Many Ukrainian officials believe negotiations can still go ahead on a free trade zone despite this, though some EU diplomats challenge this view, underlining that it is an integral part of a single agreement.
"There will be no move for EU membership (by Ukraine). But there will be a move to trade integration," analyst Vadim Karasyov of the institute for global strategies said. "Ukraine needs new markets. It will simply die without new markets for its export-oriented economy."
But he ruled out any radical orientation of its main exports towards Russia, saying: "Nobody wants to be a vassal of ‘Tsar Vladimir’ (Russian Prime Minister Putin)."
Tymoshenko was jailed for "criminally" exceeding her authority in 2009 by forcing through a 10-year gas contract with Russia which Yanukovich’s leadership says has saddled the country with an excessive price for gas.
Putin, who negotiated with Tymoshenko on that deal, criticised her jailing, saying it was "dangerous and counter-productive" to cast doubt over their agreements.
"Relations with the Russian Federation will cool. Putin believes that the sentence was passed not only on Tymoshenko but on the gas contract and on him personally," said Karasyov.
Ukraine will take a big risk if it irks Russia. Moscow has cut off gas supplies to its neighbour during disputes over prices, most recently in 2009, and upsetting Russia will not help Kiev as it tries to renegotiate its gas supply agreement with its former Soviet master this year.
Russia makes no secret of the fact it would like more influence over Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and analysts say there is a danger Moscow would resort to using its gas supplies as a political weapon to bring Kiev into its zone of influence.
BUSINESS AS USUAL
While assessing the fall-out from the trial, the Yanukovich leadership will present a business-as-usual front, hoping to convince the international community of Tymoshenko’s alleged criminal action in forcing state energy firm Naftogaz to sign a deeply-flawed contract with Russia’s Gazprom .
Yanukovich’s prime minister, Mykola Azarov, on Wednesday said he expected a "just" compromise to be worked out with Russia soon to replace Tymoshenko’s "enslaving formula".
But analysts also expect Yanukovich to follow through on a hint he dropped by securing changes to the legislation under which Tymoshenko was prosecuted so that she can be freed.
Most commentators find it hard to imagine Yanukovich will want her still in jail next year when Ukraine co-hosts the Euro-2012 soccer tournament, a chance to showcase the strides Ukraine has made since it became independent 20 years ago.
But whether he will dare allow her to become politically active again, given her populist power as a politician, is more open to question.
