Trust is the key to enforcing the Minsk cease-fire agreements signed in February, said the ambassadors of France to Russia and Hungary as well as the future French ambassador to Ukraine.
The three diplomatic envoys expressed their views on the Ukrainian crisis in a debate held in Paris on Aug. 24 that was organized by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The truce signed in Minsk involving Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France is essential to ending Russia’s war against Ukraine, Isabelle Dumont, who is slated to become France’s ambassador in Kyiv in September.
“It contains everything, it makes resolving the conflict possible,” she said during a debate titled, “The Ukrainian Question.”
She highlighted that these agreements contained a military solution to the conflict, especially through the implementation of a ceasefire, as well as a political solution, with elections and constitutional reforms.
“There are still four months to implement the Minsk agreement,” Dumont said pointing at the deal’s provisions were to be fulfilled by the end of 2015.
“If trust can be established,” according to the diplomat, there is hope the “crisis” can end in January.
Tensions would still remain, Dumont said. However, under the supervision of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Ukraine, Russia and the Kremlin-backed separatists can resolve the current crisis point by point. Negotiations are also frequently taking place within working groups every 10 or 15 days on average, she said.
Trust is another fundamental component to achieving peace, according to the three French ambassadors.
“We have to trust Russia,” Jean-Maurice Ripert, French ambassador in Russia, said. “Russia is part of the problem, but Russia is also a part of the solution.”
Since Russia is a signatory of the Minsk agreements, it therefore had to do its part of the work to implement its provisions, he stated.
In particular, Ripert said that Russia should put the same pressure on the separatists as the West puts on the Kyiv government.
Yet, the ambassadors also noted that it would be difficult to establish trust with Russia. The Kremlin views politics and diplomacy as a zero-sum game, where one side has to lose if another side gains and vice-versa, according to Ripert.
There is a long way to go in order to fully implement the Minsk truce deal, the diplomats acknowledged.
Dumont, the future French ambassador to Ukraine, said that the ceasefire isn’t good enough even though the contact line in eastern Ukraine hasn’t moved much since February.
Still, the diplomats didn’t positively assess the current situation. Citing OSCE data, Dumont said there are “between 60 and 80, if not 100, ceasefire violations per day,” which takes into account shots fired by small arms as well as artillery.
The withdrawal of heavy weapons from the frontline is “not sufficient,” she added in reference to one of the key conditions of the Minsk agreement.
Western sanctions against Russia “completely took (the Kremlin) by surprise,” said Ripert, French ambassador to Russia. He said Kremlin officials calculated that the West would not respond militarily to the crisis in eastern Ukraine, but did not expect economic sanctions to be imposed.
These measures are effective, Ripert said, and they have played an important part in the degradation of Russia’s economy as they exacerbated the recession there. The effectiveness of these sanctions shows that Russia is not a market economy that functions like other economies, he added.
They however have their limits.
“If they (sanctions) were working well, there would not be any more deaths in Donbas now,” said Eric Fournier, the future ambassador of France to Hungary. The effects of these sanctions are limited, as there are people who are willing to fight on both sides whatever happens, “even if they have to die,” he added, speaking of a “war fury.”
“Our aim is not to inflict more sanctions, it is to negotiate to get out of this crisis,” Fournier said.
The French ambassadors emphasized that Ukraine is an independent sovereign country, and that the Ukrainian people are one nation.
Even pro-Russian Ukrainians feeling Ukrainian, Dumont said. She recalled that during the parliamentary elections in October, people from the conflict zone took risks to vote, and told her they were voting because their country is Ukraine, and they were voting for the unity of the country.
The idea that there are different people split along ethnic lines in Ukraine “is extremely dangerous,” Ripert said, as it has been used to justify Russia’s interference in Ukrainian affairs.
The ambassador in Russia also recalled that even though the focus is currently on the Donbas, there is also a crisis in Crimea, specifying that “France and the European Union do not recognize the illegal annexation of Crimea.”
France was a key negotiator at the Minsk agreement in February and is part of the “Normandy” negotiation group for Ukraine, which also includes Germany, Ukraine and Russia.
Kyiv Post staff writer Yves Souben can be reached at [email protected].
