NATO member countries are stepping up training exercises with Ukrainian forces as Russia continues bolstering military capabilities in and near Donbas and Crimea at an alarming rate.
American, NATO and Ukrainian officials in the past month reported that in violation of the Minsk truce that Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly supported on Feb. 12, Russia has amassed some 60,000 troops along the Ukrainian border as of March. Russian military personnel also continue to conduct sophisticated training of combined Russian-separatist fighters inside the eastern Donbas and maintain heavy weapons and advanced air defense systems near the front lines.
“These forces will give Russia its largest presence on the border since October 2014,” American Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt tweeted on April 23. “Complexity of training leaves no doubt Russia is involved. This is the highest amount of Russian air defense equipment in eastern Ukraine since August.”
Thus, the likelihood of a full-scale Russian attack still remains high. First parliamentary deputy speaker Andriy Parubiy told channel 5 TV on March 28 that combined Russian-separatist forces could strike this spring. An analysis made public on March 30 by former NATO Supreme Commander Wesley Clark said that Russian forces could spearhead a new offensive “within the next 60 days.”
The actions constitute a violation of the Feb. 12 cease-fire that was brokered in Minsk, Belarus, acting U.S. State Department spokeswoman Marie Harf said in an April 17 briefing.
According to the cease-fire agreement that two self-proclaimed separatist leaders signed with an envoy from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Russia’s ambassador to Ukraine and ex-President Leonid Kuchma, heavy weapons were to be withdrawn from the frontline. A cease-fire was supposed to commence on Feb. 15, and prisoners of war and civil hostages were to be exchanged.
Instead, “Russia has sent heavy weapons to the front lines in eastern Ukraine in violation of the Minsk agreements…They’ve command-and-control elements to coordinate military operations…so I think that’s a very clear picture of how active Russia is,” Harf said.
Skirmishes, firefights and the use of heavy weapons persist almost on a daily basis, according to Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council.
Combined Russian-separatist forces on April 20 fired 120-milimeter mortars 18 times, 122-milimeter mortars twice and used tanks three times against Ukrainian forces on April 22. Pro-Kyiv forces spotted 17 enemy drones the same day and observed a Russian Mi-8 helicopter breach Ukraine’s airspace.
Two days earlier, Russia delivered 40 train carriages with military equipment to Sverdlovsk in Luhansk Oblast, the national security council tweeted. Fifty trucks and 20 infantry fighting vehicles with military personnel had crossed the Russia-Ukraine border the same day.
Kremlin-backed separatists have made it clear that they won’t abide by the cease-fire too. Self-proclaimed Donetsk separatist leader Aleksandr Zakharchenko declared to Vice News this week that “we do not want be a part of Ukraine…we want to be friends with Russia and that’s what we are doing.”
Acknowledging that his father lives in government-controlled territory, Zakharchenko said that his Russian relatives and friends also fight in Ukraine.
“I have a cousin in Astrakhan (in Russia). I have a friend in Sakhalin (in Russia). They both came here,” he said. “Even Americans fight for us, one of them we call Texas, he is from there. He is a sniper. We don’t have surface-to-air weapons to shoot down planes.”
Oleksiy Melnyk, co-director of foreign relations and international security programs at Razumkov Center, doesn’t see the conflict subsiding any time soon, as it contradicts the plans of Russia’s top leadership.
“What is certain is that Vladimir Putin cannot allow Kyiv to re-establish its control over the territory of (Luhansk and Donetsk self-proclaimed separatist republics),” Melnyk said. “What is also certain is that neither Zakharchenko nor (Luhansk separatist leader Ihor) Plotnitskiy are interested in further de-escalation. They do understand a direct link between the war and the level of the Russian aid.”
Some 100,000 Russian soldiers are stationed in annexed Crimea, which has become heavily militarized, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Philip Breedlove said in March. Long-range anti-aircraft and attack missile systems are on the peninsula as well.
Another staging area is Belgorod in Russia, just east of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv, according to American ambassador Pyatt. Kyiv authorities say there is a training camp located ten kilometers from Ukraine’s border that comprises 50 armored vehicles and 2,000 servicemen.
Ukrainian authorities say that Russia operates at least three military training centers inside Ukraine. Two are in Luhansk Oblast – near the cities of Krasnyi Luch and Oleksandrivsk – and one in Horlivka in Donetsk Oblast.
West trains Ukraine
In addition to providing non-lethal items to Ukraine such as, night vision goggles and sleeping bags, some NATO-member countries are training the Ukrainian military.
Britain was the first to send advisers to Ukraine consisting of 35 instructors to Mykolayiv in the south for two months in March. This week 290 U.S. paratroopers started training National Guard units in Lviv Oblast as part of long-term program. Officials expect 900 Ukrainian soldiers to be trained during the next six months in civil-military cooperation, civil emergency planning, basic medical care, casualty evacuation and actions as part of small military units.
Canada has committed as many 200 Canadian soldiers to train the military this summer, and Poland said it will host and visit Ukrainian soldiers to train military instructors at an unspecified time.
Russia said the presence of Western military advisers and instructors risked escalating the war.
“Provocateurs in Kyiv and those who support the ‘party of war’ might attempt to cook something up in the hopes of inflaming world public opinion, resulting in weapons flowing into Ukraine. We must keep a close eye on this,” Lavrov said, according to a translated TV interview provided by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Operation Atlantic Resolve
Partially in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the specter of war spreading further into Europe, NATO started military drills and joint-training programs with alliance and non-alliance countries. It is strengthening defenses on its eastern flank with a force of 5,000 troops and command centers in Bulgaria, Poland and Romania. Training exercises have been held in Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Germany as well.
NATO member Norway held Joint Viking exercises in March just as Russia was conducting massive drills near the border area. Sweden, also not part of the military alliance, in March put some 150 troops on the strategic Baltic Sea island of Gotland in response to Russian saber-rattling in the region.
Kyiv Post editor-at-large Mark Rachkevych can be reached at [email protected].
Editor’s note: This article was changed to say that Norway is a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
