Premier Silvio Berlusconi battled for his political survival Monday, warning lawmakers they risked plunging the country into financial instability unless they support his government in a pair of confidence votes.
The showdown in parliament Tuesday is a do-or-die test for Berlusconi midway through his five year-term. The Italian leader has insisted he would survive, but the outcome is unpredictable and will likely be determined by a handful of swing lawmakers.
The premier has been hurt by prostitution scandals and embarrassing revelations that a U.S. diplomat described him as a "feckless" leader, according to a secret U.S. embassy cable released by WikiLeaks website. A fallout with his one-time closest ally, Gianfranco Fini, this summer weakened his coalition, potentially depriving him of a parliamentary majority.
In a 30-minute speech Monday to the Senate, Berlusconi battled back against his critics and outlined why lawmakers should support his government.
He offered to negotiate a new legislative agenda that would allow the government to survive until new parliamentary elections are held in 2013. He promised a Cabinet reshuffle to give government positions to those who support him in the votes.
He defended his Cabinet’s record and argued that his government had successfully worked to protect Italy from becoming engulfed in the eurozone’s debt crisis.
"The last thing Italy needs is a political crisis," Berlusconi said, as his close ally Umberto Bossi, leader of the Northern League, sat next to him.
Berlusconi’s government has generally won praise for its reaction to the global financial crisis, steadfastly directed by Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti and including a rigorous austerity package.
Italy has a high public debt level, and recently faced renewed threats of becoming engulfed in the eurozone’s debt crisis. But the country is still widely viewed as low-risk due to the low level of private debt, relatively sound banking system, and experience in dealing with high public debt levels.
"If your concern over Italy’s difficult situation is honest and real, then the only possible way forward is renewing confidence in my government," Berlusconi said. Such a vote, he said, "will be proof of realism and political wisdom."
Berlusconi also defended his friendship with Russia’s Prime Minister Vladimir Putin following revelations that the U.S. diplomats were uneasy about the premier’s close relationship with Moscow. He dismissed suggestions that he had personally benefited from business deals between Italian and Russian companies, saying that "not one dollar … has been put or will ever be put in my pocket."
Fini and Berlusconi had been allies since the mid-1990s, and recently co-founded the People of Freedom party, winning elections in 2008 together. But after months of public bickering over party and government policies, Fini was effectively expelled from the party. He then formed a breakaway faction in parliament, withdrew his delegation from the government, and urged Berlusconi to resign.
On Monday, the premier appealed to rebel lawmakers who have sided with Fini by reminding them of "the long way we have come together."
"I’m certain nobody wants to hastily throw away what we have created together," Berlusconi said.
Reaction, though, was frosty.
"A government that only wants to last, not to govern, cannot receive our vote of confidence," said Benedetto Della Vedova, a Fini ally, during the debate in the lower house.
Still, some lawmakers close to Fini have expressed doubts about voting against the government, fearing the consequences of opening a political crisis with no resolution in sight.
The premier is expected to secure the confidence vote in the Senate, where lawmakers will be voting on a motion in support of the government brought by Berlusconi’s allies.
But the risk lies in the lower house, where the split with Fini has potentially deprived him of a majority. Faced with the prospect of a very close vote, Berlusconi has been trying to persuade undecided lawmakers — drawing accusations of vote-buying and even an investigation by Rome prosecutors. He has rejected any such accusations.
If Berlusconi wins, he is assured more time in office, even though a razor-thin majority is no guarantee of stability. If he loses, he has to resign — a move that might lead to early elections.
That decision rests with the president, Giorgio Napolitano, who could alternatively ask Berlusconi to form a new government, possibly with a broadened coalition and a revised program, or tap a new premier to lead a new government.
