PARIS, March 2 (Reuters) - President Nicolas Sarkzoy faces a make-or-break struggle to claw back ground from Socialist challenger Francois Hollande as France enters a critical campaign period ahead of a two round election in April and May.
Sarkozy’s challenge is to keep the momentum going after trimming Hollande’s poll lead since officially launching his campaign for a second term in mid-February.
As long as Hollande avoid major slip-ups, the election is his to win because he can tap a rich vein of popular disgruntlement with Sarkozy whose brash style has irked many voters during the past five years.
Hollande’s lack of government experience allows Sarkozy to cast himself as better qualified to handle the challenges facing the nation, from the euro zone crisis to its industrial decline and France’s standing in a world where emerging powers are wielding more clout.
Since Sarkozy hit the campaign trail, some polls show he has managed to trim Hollande’s opinion poll lead for the first round on April 22 to 1 or 2 points, from as much as 6 points, and to 12 points, from as much as 16, for the May 6 runoff.
The election is largely a two-horse race with far-right candidate Marine Le Pen and centrist Francois Bayrou both trailing by margins probably too wide to close.
However, the preferences of their supporters will be decisive if the runoff narrows the field down to Sarkozy and Hollande. Moreover, with many voters still undecided, there remains room for surprises.
ECONOMY
With unemployment running at a 12-year high, the election is largely being fought over the economy and what is the best model for growth, which has been limp through much of Sarkozy’s term due in large part to 2008-2009 financial crisis.
The incumbent president says France must shift to a more business-friendly, export-driven model by drawing on Germany’s example of wage restraint and fiscal austerity, while Hollande wants to maintain high government spending on welfare, education and investment.
Eager to restore his economic credentials, Sarkozy has rushed through a tax reform to make companies more competitive before the election and is pledging a major shake-up of the jobless benefits if elected.
In contrast, Hollande is pledging to deliver a fairer economy for the lower and middle classes, taking aim at millionaires with plans for a upper tax bracket of 75 percent for people taking home over a million euros a year. The current top tax rate is 41 percent, plus a temporary surcharge for high earners.
What to watch:
– Opinion poll fluctuations in the weeks ahead
– Possible gaffes that could chip away potential votes
EURO ZONE CRISIS
As in other European countries, consumer and business confidence is benefiting from signs that the euro zone crisis has entered a less dramatic phase.
Sarkozy capitalised on more chronic episodes of the crisis last year to cultivate an image as an energetic statesman at the centre of Europe’s efforts to avert financial meltdown, which temporarily translated into poll gains.
With the crisis still on voters’ minds, Sarkozy is trying to cast himself as a protector of the French people in contrast to Hollande who has no experience on the international stage and has never been a cabinet minister.
As the crisis has died down, Hollande’s pledge to renegotiate the European Union’s new fiscal compact – which France and Germany pushed in December and was signed on Friday by the leaders of 25 of the 27 states – is increasingly becoming a liability.
Although a new flare-up in the crisis could once again sap economic confidence, it could play into Sarkozy’s hands by putting him in the role of rescuer-in-chief as long as emergency EU summits do not drag him too long from the campaign trail.
What to watch:
– New dramatic twists in the euro zone crisis and how the candidates react.
– Consumer and business confidence indicators.
FOREIGN POLICY
Alongside the United States, Sarkozy’s government has aggressively led pressure on Syria to stop the bloodshed in the country and lobbied Russia and China hard to drop resistance to U.N. Security Council resolutions against Damascus.
Hollande has endorsed Sarkozy’s firm stance on Syria but is largely steering clear of tough foreign policy issues such as Syria or Iran, aware that his lack of international experience would be all too easy a target for Sarkozy.
While a Hollande victory would see a Socialist head of state setting French foreign policy for the first time since 1995, analysts say that changes would most likely be in style rather than substance.
Hollande’s Socialists have said they would pull troops out of Afghanistan this year if they win a presidential election, distancing themselves a little from the close relationship Sarkozy has built with the United States.
What to watch:
– Any errors by Sarkozy handling Syria or a dramatic deterioration there that forces Hollande to focus more on foreign policy.
– A possible escalation of tensions with Iran throwing surprises into the campaigning.
