Invasion of Ukraine by Belarus’ 20,000 man army is still possible, but chances that Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko will actually give the attack order are fading, a Ukrainian Army General Staff (AGS) situation estimate said on Wednesday.
The estimate said Belarus is likely to continue giving substantial logistical support to Russian Federation (RF) forces in Belarus, particularly with air bases enabling RF aircraft to strike Ukraine almost at will, and with state-run hospitals to treat thousands of RF soldiers injured in fighting.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has called repeatedly on his Belarusian counterpart Lukashenko to launch forces into Ukraine to assist RF forces currently stalled in front of the major cities Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv. RF state-controlled media has repeatedly predicted a Belarusian intervention in Ukraine, most recently on Tuesday, only to see Belarusian forces now stationed near the Ukrainian border not cross it.
The GCS estimate said a majority of the Belarusian military oppose fighting in Ukraine’s war with Russia in part because they do not perceive Ukraine as a threat to Belarus, and in part because of wide reports that RF attacks against prepared Ukrainian positions have been, repeatedly, cut to pieces by Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) artillery and anti-tank units.
Another possible indicator of Belarusian public disinclination to fight in Ukraine on Putin’s side is visible in the Belarusian national rail network, where critical switching stations, computerized traffic control equipment and even track sections leading south to Ukraine have been sabotaged, the GCS estimate said.
Oleksiy Arestovych, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a Wednesday statement widely carried by Ukrainian media said that at least 60 percent of the Belarusian military are dead set against invading Ukraine. Arestovych said that if Lukashenko gave the attack order he would face the risk of part of his army mutinying and part of his army attempting to invade Ukraine, and massed protests against his regime.
