United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an unscheduled appearance at the United Nations Security Council on Feb. 17 to warn that Russia was showing no signs of military de-escalation in what he described as “a moment of peril.” He dismissed Moscow’s claim to be pulling forces back, just hours after artillery fire hit a Ukrainian kindergarten near the contact line in eastern Ukraine that divides the Ukrainian military from Russian-backed occupying forces.
In his remarks Blinken laid out specific examples of how the attack would develop, including several fabricated scenarios that the Kremlin might use to defend a military invasion.
He added his voice to statements by President Joe Biden at the White House and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III made earlier the same day that new evidence indicated that Russia was making final preparations for an attack on Ukraine, not standing down as the Kremlin was stating.
US officials have noted that Russia increased its forces by another 7,000 troops over the last days even while claiming that a tank division stationed for military manoeuvres in Crimea was sent home.
“Every indication we have is that they’re prepared to go into Ukraine,” Biden said. “My sense is it will happen in the next several days.”
General Austin echoed those remarks while in Brussels to meet with NATO leadership, noting that “we are seeing Russia sharpen its readiness.”
At the UN Security Council, Blinken told the members that Russia could well use a “false flag” operation to stage a fabricated incident or make an outrageous accusation against Ukraine, which it would then use “as the pretext for a military invasion.”
In a very blunt and straightforward manner, Blinken provided a few stark examples of possible scenarios.
He said that a false flag operation could come in several ways, including by way of a bombing that Russia would blame on Ukrainian terrorists; a drone strike against civilians living in the Russian-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine, a chemical attack – real or fabricated – that is blamed on Ukraine, or the discovery of an invented mass gravesite that Russia would hold Ukraine responsible for.
He said that in the last few days Russian media has begun to suggest to its citizens that Ukraine was putting together these types of scenarios.
His remarks came hours after a rocket hit a pre-school in eastern Ukraine near the contact line that divides Ukrainian military forces from pro-Russian separatist forces.
No one was killed although a few school employees suffered concussions.
Ukraine blamed Russian-backed occupying forces for the illegal attack.
During his appearance at the UN Security Council, Blinken described a four-stage process by which Russia would invade Ukraine, which he said would begin with a disinformation campaign, and move to a cyber attack and a country-wide shutdown of communications systems.
Then Ukrainian cities would be targeted with aerial bombardment, followed by Russian ground forces entering the country and targeting “specific groups of Ukrainians.”
Blinken underscored that the US and Europe continued to urge diplomacy.
“Diplomacy is the only way to peaceably resolve this,” said Blinken.
He acknowledged that the US had finally received an 11-page response to the diplomatic note it had delivered to the Kremlin three weeks ago and was reviewing it.
A CNN report called the report “dark” and “damning,” with little in it that suggests a diplomatic way forward.
Nonetheless, Blinken said that he was ready to meet next week with Russia’s Foreign Secretary Sergei Lavrov to continue a diplomatic dialogue and avoid war.
