You're reading: Fears rise as 2012 election nears

Has Ukraine had its last democratic election?

Such fears are rising, along with criticism, of attempts to change the law yet again ahead of the fall 2012 parliamentary elections.

However, President Viktor Yanukovych’s administration says the concerns are unfounded. The real problem, officials say, is foreign meddling in Ukraine’s internal affairs – including how to conduct its own elections.

Two serious issues are at stake in the Oct. 28 vote. One is whether Ukraine continues on a democratic course, with fair elections serving as an acid test. The other is whether the pro-presidential Party of Regions – increasingly unpopular, according to polls — strengthens or loses its grip on power.

The European Commission for Democracy through Law, better known as the Venice Commission, wants Ukraine to scrap plans to overhaul its election system for next year’s parliamentary election.

This has sparked resentment among officials in Kyiv, who had hoped for an international stamp of approval for plans that critics say will favor parties supporting Yanukovych.


Officials say foreign groups are interfering in domestic matters

Some angry Ukrainian officials indicated that election authorities will likely ignore criticism from the election expert body and push ahead with plans to change the system, while taking into account technical recommendations.

The current system in use is a proportional vote for parties, with a closed list, meaning that the voters blindly cast their ballots for a party without knowing who will end up in parliament.

The Venice Commission recommended that the nation improve the existing system to introduce open regional lists. At the same time, the Council of Europe advisory board wants Ukraine to give up plans to re-introduce single-member, majority constituencies for half the 450-seat chamber while keeping the party lists for the other half.

“If we’re talking about the introduction of a mixed system, Ukraine has had a negative experience in applying such a system. A mixed system may lead to abuses,” said Thomas Markert, the Venice Commission secretary, at a parliamentary hearing on Oct. 31.

Ukraine used to have a mixed system in 1998 and 2002, under the autocratic President Leonid Kuchma, when observers said the pro-presidential candidates were heavily favored in majority constituencies while many candidates on party lists remained unknown until after the election.

Markert also noted that increasing of the threshold from the current 3 to 5 percent of the vote, as well as a ban on party blocs sought by the ruling party, is putting the opposition in a disadvantageous position.

“We believe that such unilateral changes will undermine the confidence of voters in the electoral system,” Markert said, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency reported.


First they tell us what system to use and what threshold, and next they will tell us who has to be in parliament

– Senior presidential administration official

Some Ukrainian officials were furious about such statements coming from the European body, which usually focuses on compliance with European democratic practices and guidelines.

“First they tell us what system to use and what threshold, and next they will tell us who has to be in parliament,” a senior presidential administration official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Maryna Stavniychuk, a Ukrainian member of the Venice Commission and an adviser to the president on electoral issues, is in a tough position.
On the one hand, she agrees that the Venice Commission’s recommendation to introduce open regional lists, where parties would declare who will end up in parliament on their list in every region, is best.

On the other, Stavniychuk also agrees that the choice of the electoral system is up to the nation.

“This is a complicated situation,” Stavniychuk said. “Both the Venice Commission and International Foundation for Electoral Systems are pointing to the flaws of the existing system that became obvious in the last two elections … which we have to improve.”

She said the nation would greatly benefit from open party lists, which would create inter-party competition and better reflect the moods of voters, but doubts that this system could be approved by the current Verkhovna Rada.

Yet the election law is far from set.

Apart from the draft law the Venice Commission analyzed and a version of which was introduced on behalf of the pro-presidential majority, parliament has four more competing drafts on the same issue. The majority’s draft, which was prepared by a working group initiated by Yanukovych, has the best chance of coming to pass.

The draft, and even the process of its creation, has already sparked criticism.


The law will be changed to suit one or another clan within the ruling party, and the interests of the opposition are left out of the equation.

– Kost Bondarenko, political analyst

Members of the working group representing the political opposition and international organizations complained that the basic parameters were decided before the debate even started.

Kristina Wilfore, who heads the National Democratic Institute’s office in Kyiv, has said the whole process lacked transparency.

Serhiy Lyovochkin, the president’s chief of staff, dismissed the accusation. He told the Kyiv Post on Nov. 1 that every issue was open for debate, yet Ukraine “maintains the right not to adhere to the recommendation of international organizations” concerning the electoral system. “All important technical recommendations will be taken into consideration, but the last word will be said by parliament,” he said.

Many think that the final law will be tailored to suit the ruling majority.

“The law will be changed to suit one or another clan within the ruling party, and the interests of the opposition are left out of the equation,” said Kost Bondarenko, a political analyst.

Even if parliament does vote to switch to a mixed system, both the Venice Commission and IFES warn that changes are needed to avoid a dirty election.

In a recent report, the two groups said there are major technical problems with the ruling majority’s draft law, including unclear rules for drawing up the districts of the 225 majority constituencies; the involvement of local executive officials in the process of drawing up districts; excessive powers given to district election commissions to cancel registration of candidates; and the ability for parties to recall its nominees from election commissions.

David Ennis, who heads IFES in Ukraine, said he hoped some of the problems identified by his organization and the Venice Commission will be eliminated by the final reading in parliament and through auxiliary laws, such as a law on districting.

Whatever the election system, many in the West have said that Ukraine’s 2012 parliament elections will not be considered democratic unless the imprisoned opposition leader Yulia Tymoshenko is set free and is allowed to participate.

The ex-prime minister leads an eponymous bloc in parliament with the second largest number of members, 103, to the pro-presidential Party of Regions’ 193.

Kyiv Post editor Katya Gorchinskaya can be reached at [email protected].