You're reading: Creeping Paranoia

President Viktor Yanukovych has sounded the alarm: Kyiv could soon plunge into violence, with armed attacks on government agencies as his opponents attempt a coup to destabilize the nation.

That is the scenario that Yanukovych raised earlier this month, when he told a cabinet meeting of armed threats to his rule.

“There are calls for a revolution. I learned from law enforcement agencies that arms are being bought in the country and armed attacks on government agencies are being prepared,” the president said on Nov. 2.

The dark pronouncement has triggered a flurry of theories about what is really happening.

Some observers suggested he was preparing the grounds for a Russian-style clampdown on opponents.

Others said high-ranking members of the security service could be using the alleged threats to gain greater control over Yanukovych.

According to one former Yanukovych insider, the president is truly fearful that attempts will be made on his life.

This isn’t the first time that Yanukovych and his allies have raised the possibility of violent attacks and hinted at involvement of the opposition.
In June 2010, Yanukovych said there were threats to his motorcade from a sniper.

On Aug. 22, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) arrested three people outside of Kyiv, charging them with allegedly preparing an explosion during Independence Day celebrations in Kyiv on Aug. 24.


There are calls for a revolution. I learned from law enforcement agencies that arms are being bought in the country and armed attacks on government agencies are being prepared.


– President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych

Interfax-Ukraine news agency quoted an SBU source raising the threat of an explosion on Oct. 11 near the court in Kyiv during the announcement of the verdict in the criminal case against ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

Protests against Yanukovych’s policies are certainly rising.

Several thousand Chornobyl rescue workers, small business owners and veterans of the Soviet war in Afghanistan have several times protested outside parliament and government offices in recent weeks against social benefit cuts.

On a handful of occasions, they have torn down the recently erected high metal fence around parliament and tried to get into the building, scuffling with riot police.

However, even the SBU and the Interior Ministry initially appeared puzzled by Yanukovych’s words, saying in statements on the same day that they knew nothing about such threats or arms purchases.

It was only on the following day, on Nov. 3 that the Interior Ministry reported that this year they confiscated about 2,000 firearms, grenades, explosives and other weapons from people who kept them illegally.

According to a police statement, the people who had these weapons allegedly wanted to use them to storm government buildings. However, what the police presented as a successful operation only raised additional questions.

Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, a former SBU chief and currently an opposition politician, said law enforcement bodies should explain why they failed to prevent illegal dissemination of weapons.

He added that law enforcers still have not reported on whether they had neutralized previous alleged threats.

“The prosecutor general and the security services never delivered a report on last year’s information that there was a threat to the president’s life by unknown snipers on his motorcade route,” Nalyvaichenko said.

“If the police fail to show the results of their investigations on preventing terrorist acts, then those in charge are not professionals. They are scaring themselves, the president and the society with such information.”

Others who worked with Yanukovych say that some around him may be trying to capitalize on the president’s sincere fears.

Taras Chornovil, a lawmaker in the pro-presidential coalition in the parliament and a former close adviser to Yanukovych, said he does not believe there is any information on threats to the president, calling such reports “a joke.”

He said the president has phobias which originate from the wild and lawless 1990s, when he was a Donetsk governor. Then, someone allegedly tried to poison him.

“Yanukovych told me a story that [back then] somebody tried to poison him then, but he miraculously survived,” he said.

In a December 2010 interview to the Kyiv Post Chornovil said that Yanukovych “constantly believes that someone wants to kill him.” He said that people close to the president might be trying to take advantage of this fear in order to manipulate him.

“Some people from his (Yanukovych’s) inner circle try to take advantage of these fears,” he said.

In the light of growing social protests, the opposition raised concerns that Yanukovych and the authorities might be trying to create provocations in order to tighten security in the country.

Yanukovych constantly believes that someone wants to kill him. Some people from his (Yanukovych’s) inner circle try to take advantage of these fears.

– Taras Chornovil, a lawmaker in the pro-presidential coalition in the parliament, a former close adviser to Yanukovych.

Andriy Parubiy, a lawmaker in the opposition Our Ukraine faction, believes the president wants to use the information on alleged threats as a premise for political repressions.

“This is a premise in order to strengthen punitive authorities in Ukraine, which would fight the political opposition. This can lead to new political repressions,” Parubiy told Gazeta.ua website.

Foreign security analysts also suspect that reports of alleged threats might be used to justify Russian-style new security tactics.

Jeffrey Murer, a research fellow at the Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence of the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, calls it a “common practice” when a government raises the specter of threats to justify a security crackdown.

“This is a very well established practice. It reminds of a tradition of articulation of ‘dark forces’ in Russian politics: the idea that there is an imminent threat from dark forces becomes a way for the government to justify new security tactics,” Murer said.

“Yanukovych’s statement about the preparation to attack the authorities seems to be a preemptive justification for increased security measures.”

Vitaliy Klitschko, the boxing champion and opposition politician, said those who make allegations of a possible coup being planned in the country should either give more details of who is planning this and take measures to prevent the violence, or resign.

“It looks like someone is trying to create a virtual illusive world, where economic reforms are going forward, but armed opposition is creating obstacles for improving living standards. And the only way out is to jail the opposition, which they are doing very well,” Klitschko said.

Kyiv Post staff writer Yuriy Onyshkiv can be reached at [email protected]. And Vlad Lavrov can be reached at [email protected]