MOSCOW – The opening of the Turkish market will allow Russia to increase its grain exports in the current agricultural year, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, in charge of the agricultural sector, said.
“I don’t know (whether the export forecasts will prove right). That depends on the specific conjuncture of the past few months (the agricultural year ending in June). But with Turkey now open, I think, there will be an increase,” Dvorkovich told journalists on Saturday.
Minor variations to the forecast will make no difference, he said. “I have always said that plus-minus a million (tonnes) makes no big difference. I don’t know whether there will be a little bit less or a little bit more,” the deputy prime minister said.
One should not expect big grain exports from Russia in May-June: buyers are expecting the new harvest to be higher and cheaper, Dmitry Rylko, General Director at the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), told Interfax earlier.
“The picture for May is fairly grim as far as export is concerned. There won’t be any of the volumes one would export to clear the balance and reduce stocks,” Rylko said.
Grain importers are already looking at the global prospects for the new harvest, the IKAR director said. “And so far they are looking good, and the prices for new grain, in particular wheat, are more than $10 lower than the old crop wheat, and stand at $172-173 per tonne. Importers are not forcing purchases,” Rylko said.
The IKAR has revised its wheat export estimate in the current agricultural year (July 2016-June 2017) from 27.5 million tonnes down to 27.1 million tonnes. Furthermore, forecasts for corn exports were reduced from 5 million to 4.8 million tonnes, and for barley, from 3 million to 2.1 million tonnes. Thus, total export, in the new forecast, would be 36 million tonnes against 36.6 million tonnes in the previous estimate.
In the new agricultural year (July 2017-June 2018), 37.6-39.8 million tonnes of grain may be intended for export, including 28-30 million tonnes of wheat, the IKAR director said.
Total grain harvest in 2017 is forecast at 109-114.5 million tonnes, including 64-69 million tonnes of wheat, IKAR said.
