Russia is trying to influence the 2019 Ukrainian elections to install friendlier leadership, U.S. National Intelligence Director Daniel Coats told the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee on Jan. 29.
According to Coats, Kyiv’s “fragile economy, widespread corruption, cyber vulnerabilities and public discontent” makes it vulnerable to Russian meddling. Russia may take advantage of public distrust of politicians to introduce candidates who would be more amenable to Russia’s interests, both in the presidential and the parliamentary elections coming this year.
“(The) lack of a clear frontrunner may provide Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s rivals, as well as lesser known candidates and political newcomers, an opportunity to appeal to the largely undecided Ukrainian electorate,” Coats said.
The Kremlin will apply multiple tools to achieve these goals, according to the report.
Glen Grant, a defense expert working for the think tank Ukrainian Institute for the Future, told Kyiv Post that Russia’s methods include trying to water down the election by helping get more candidates into the running. While it’s unlikely that an openly pro-Russia candidate will gain broad support, supporting candidates who would pull votes away from those who would stand up to Russia is a likely tactic for the Kremlin, Grant said.
Besides trying to install or support certain candidates, Russia’s army of bots and spin doctors is likely to spread praise or criticism to sway public opinion in a way that aligns with Russian interests.
Attempts to incite civil unrest is another possible move in the Russian playbook, Chief of the National Police of Ukraine Serhiy Knyazev said at the annual meeting of the Ministry of Internal Affairs on Jan. 28. Russia may also attempt to undermine state agencies, he said.
UK-based investigators and international experts warned in 2018 that Kremlin spies are widespread in Kyiv — possibly numbering in the hundreds.
“Getting a president who is sympathetic to Russia is the cheapest way of gaining control of Ukraine,” said Grant. “There is no cheaper way.”
The intelligence report added that Russia will try to stymie Kyiv’s attempts to integrate into the EU and NATO. President Petro Poroshenko said that Ukraine is on track to apply for EU membership in 2024, and that its army will be fully compliant with NATO standards by 2020.
Coats went on to warn about rising tensions in the Black and Azov Seas, as both Ukraine and Russia flex their naval muscles. A major offensive by either country is “feasible” but “unlikely” in 2019, unless one side thinks the other is seriously challenging the status quo.
“Whilst Putin is making gains, there is no reason for him to attack. If he continues to gain around Azov and continues demoralizing the (Ukrainian) military, those are solid gains for him,” said Grant.
He added that Putin will be more incentivized to attack if Ukraine elects a strongly anti-Russian president who rebuilds the Ukrainian military. However this scenario is still preferable to electing a president who is soft on Russia, he added.
Ukrainian citizens and civil society organizations can be more proactive in fighting back against Russian meddling, Grant said. They can work harder to check political candidates’ credentials, comb through social media accounts to spot bots, and be present at ballot locations to detect violators. Most importantly, they should not be afraid to hold candidates’ feet to the fire.
“They should demand answers, and if they don’t get answers, don’t vote for them,” he said.
