You're reading: As Putin’s popularity falls, fears rise that he may resort to war

The Russian ruling party’s poor performance in the Sept. 9 regional elections and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s plummeting approval rating show growing discontent with the Russian authorities but do not indicate a threat to their power so far, political analysts say.

“There’s no threat to Putin so far,” Russian political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin told the Kyiv Post. “He controls the elite, cash flows and law enforcement agencies.”

However, Putin may resort to war – possibly escalating the war against Ukraine or starting another war elsewhere – to prop up his rating. Oreshkin said that his previous peaks of popularity coincided with three wars – the 1999-2000 Chechen war, the 2008 war with Georgia, and the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine in 2014.

Worst results

Putin’s United Russia party has seen its popularity plummet as a result of proposals to increase the retirement age and an economic downturn.

While it invariably won every election in the past 12 years, the United Russia did surprisingly bad in the local election on Sept. 9, coming second or in a tie in several regions.

The party lost the first place to the Communist Party in the republic of Khakasia and in Irkutsk and Ulyanovsk oblasts. The Communist Party and United Russia got 34 percent and 27.8 percent in Irkutsk Oblast, 31 percent and 25.5 percent in Khakasia and 36.3 percent and 34 percent in Ulyanovsk Oblast, respectively.

There will also be run-offs for the governors of Khakasia, Primorsky Krai, Vladimir Oblast and Khabarovsk Krai. In the first round, United Russia candidates won in Primorsky Krai region and Vladimir Oblast, while a candidate nominated by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia won in Khabarovsk Krai and a Communist Party candidate won in Khakasia.

The party and its candidates, however, won in most of the 22 races for governor and most of the elections for 16 regional legislatures and 12 city councils. In the Moscow mayoral election, incumbent Mayor Sergei Sobyanin won with 70 percent of the vote.

Still, Russian-born election expert Alexander Kireev and Arkady Lyubarev from Russia’s Golos election watchdog said that these were United Russia’s worst results since 2006 and 2007.

United Russia has grown unaccustomed to competition and will have to become more flexible if it wants to win in future elections, Borys Makarenko, head of Russia’s Center for Political Technologies, told the Kyiv Post.

Kireev published statistical evidence of the rigging of elections in Moscow Oblast, Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District and the republic of Bashkortostan. Russian authorities have denied rigging the elections.

According to the official results, United Russia performed better in regions like Rostov and Kemerovo Oblast and in ethnic republics, where rigging has tended to be higher historically, Kireev said.

Discontent hits Putin

One of the major reasons for United Russia’s poor results is Putin’s pension reform plan.

The plan envisages gradually increasing the retirement age for men from the current 60 to 65 by 2028, and to 60 by 2034 from the current 55 for women. After the bill on the pension reform was submitted to Russia’s parliament in June, Putin’s approval rating fell from a peak of 74 percent in 2015 to 45 percent on Aug. 5 – the lowest point since 2013, according to Russia’s FOM polling agency.

Thousands protested against the pension reform on Sept. 9 to Sept. 10 in 83 Russian cities at rallies organized by opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

A total of 1,195 protesters were arrested nationwide, according to the OVD-Info detention monitoring site. Photos and video footage from St. Petersburg show the police violently beating protesters.

Other reasons for the decreasing popularity of Putin and his party are the worsening economic situation amid Western sanctions, including the falling rate of the ruble and increasing prices, Oreshkin and Makarenko said.

Russian authorities increased public sector employees’ salaries in the run-up to the presidential election to secure Putin’s victory, but they cut them again after the election, Oreshkin said.

“United Russia will not get its (high) approval rating back,” he added. “The best times for both United Russia and Putin are over.”

Tight leash

However, analysts also argued that there is so far little danger to Putin’s position.

United Russia will still keep its majority in Ulyanovsk Oblast and the republic of Khakasia, despite losing the party-list elections, by winning most of the single-mandate constituencies. The only region where United Russia will lose its majority is Irkutsk Oblast.

The Communist Party and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, which won in some regions, are still controlled by the Kremlin.

Non-United Russia governors are also unlikely to be independent. “Governors are kept on a tight leash and depend on the Kremlin’s resources,” Oreshkin said.

Moreover, Putin is usually credited for victories, while defeats are ascribed to United Russia, governors, the cabinet and oligarchs, Oreshkin added.

Another factor is that younger people – Navalny’s main target group – are less concerned about pension reform, Makarenko said.