Editor’s Note: The following is the English-language translation of an interview published on June 1 by Bild, the German newspaper, with Alexander Hug, the deputy head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. It is being republished with the permission of the newspaper. From its introduction: “Why is the ceasefire agreed for eastern Ukraine in 2014 still not being implemented? And why have so many civilians been killed there over the past two years? One man who should know the answers to these questions is Alexander Hug, the long-standing deputy head of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe’s Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. In this interview with Julian Röpcke, Bild’s political editor, Hug explains why the situation is deteriorating, and why the OSCE cannot say exactly who is responsible for the ceasefire violations.”
BILD: Comparing the first five months of 2016 and 2017, how has the security situation in the conflict area changed?
Alexander Hug: At the beginning of this year, at the end of January, we saw a massive, unprecedented surge in ceasefire violations, of a scale that we’ve never registered before, often exceeding 10,000 breaches per day. Since then, there has been a small decline in the violence, but it’s still very present. We currently register hundreds, if not thousands of ceasefire violations per day. Last week, for example, with the exception of Tuesday, we registered over 1,200 violations every day.
Heavy weapons continue to be used, albeit slightly less since the start of the year. Furthermore, we’re dealing with unpredictability in the further development of the conflict, as in 2016. The reason for this is, on the one hand, that the sides (the Ukrainian army and the Russian-backed forces of the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk) are too close to each other, and on the other hand there’s the presence of heavy weapons near the contact line on both sides, where they should not be.
BILD: So the weapons withdrawal agreement between the parties to the conflict hasn’t resulted in much so far?
Hug: The agreement of last September has meant that the sides have moved away from each other in two locations – in Zolote, in Luhansk Oblast, and in Petrivska, in Donetsk Oblast. We haven’t recorded any fighting in these two areas in recent weeks.
BILD: But outside these areas are the Ukrainian army and the “people’s militia” moving towards each other?
Hug: Outside of them, yes. There is also a third agreed disengagement area in Stanytsia Luhanska. But the sides have not moved away from each other there, and we regularly record fighting.
BILD: What issue causes you the most concern?
Hug: The striking difference from 2016 is the number of civilian casualties compared to the same period last year. Since the beginning of the year, we’ve documented 44 civilians being killed and 188 injured. That’s an increase of 111 percent compared to the previous year. The contact line runs close to city boundaries and villages. That’s why these areas are dragged into the armed conflict and come under fire. In addition, heavy weapons are placed in residential areas and are fired, which often results in retaliatory fire. And since the conflict is hardly being conducted with precision weapons, the counter-fire hits the civilians in the vicinity. ”
BILD: Who is placing their heavy weapons in built-up civilian areas?
Hug: Both sides. And we can prove that with photos.
Can you also prove with photos or videos that heavy weapons are being fired from populated areas?
Hug: The firing itself is more difficult to prove. But we see when there is the retaliatory fire, and time and again we see the tracks of heavy weapons. We’ve also released videos where the firing of weapons is clearly evident.
BILD: The Ukrainian tanks among the houses in Avdiyivka, for example, weren’t firing.
Hug: No, but they were there, between residential buildings. And this also makes these residential areas de facto a military target.
BILD: If you sum it all up, has Minsk been implemented at all so far?
Hug: I’d say that at best, the agreements have been partially implemented. There are days when we have few ceasefire violations. Especially in Luhansk Oblast, where, for example, a river ensures there’s the necessary minimum distance between the sides. Sometimes there are barely a hundred in a single day – that’s when we have rather good implementation of the Minsk Agreement.
BILD: So you actually regard a few quiet days in some areas as a “partial implementation of the Minsk Agreement?”
Hug: I said at best and only partially. Compared to summer 2014 and early 2015, the Minsk agreements have contributed to a de-escalation. You simply have to understand that the full implementation of the agreement is currently not wanted, and I’m not talking about the political aspects here, but purely the military ones.
BILD: Two questions about your work and its consequences. You speak regularly of “the sides” not adhering to the ceasefire. But who fires first?
Hug: We’re asked this question by all journalists and politicians, and it’s a legitimate question. The reality is, however, that it’s almost impossible to say. We sometimes see a side firing towards our positions. But we can’t ever say “they shot first” because we don’t know the reason for the firing. For example, an observer is at the contact line and sees that shots being fired from west to east or from east to west. But he or she doesn’t know if this is the answer to something that happened before we arrived at this place or somewhere else along the contact line that we might not have seen. So it would be pure speculation to say that one or the other side shot first.
BILD: Point 10 of the Minsk Agreement requires the “withdrawal of all foreign military equipment from the territory of Ukraine.” The only ones who have access to such weapons are the “people’s republics.” Why don’t you make public data like the serial numbers of tanks, so others can check whether they actually are “foreign military equipment?”
Hug: Our modus operandi is that we verify weapons that have already been withdrawn. We go back regularly to see if the weapons are still there or not. One problem is that due to the difficulties of reaching these places, we often don’t have an accurate count of the number of weapons in the depots. You’re right that we don’t publish the serial numbers – it wouldn’t create the kind of atmosphere we need to carry out verification. Verification is one of the confidence-building measures.
BILD: But wouldn’t the publication of the serial numbers be exactly what we’d need to implement point ten of Minsk?
Hug: Our task is to build trust between the sides. If we published figures that were then used for speculation, that wouldn’t create confidence. We’re currently just verifying the withdrawal (of heavy weapons), not whether these weapons are foreign or not. We’d need a new agreement for that. In my opinion, all of the weapons should go back into bases. And when that’s, then the process of removing foreign weapons can begin. ”
BILD: In September it will be three years since the signing of the Minsk Protocol in 2014. What do you think are the chances that it will be implemented at all?
Hug: It’s in the hands of the sides themselves to do it all, and do it quickly. They have the capacity to do it, and have shown that in the past – there was the ceasefire at the beginning of the school year, and the partial withdrawal of heavy weapons. It’s possible. The civilian population is also a very significant factor. Every day, 15,000 to 20,000 civilians cross the line of contact. That’s a hopeful sign. Things like this don’t happen in other conflicts, when there’s a real rift between the populations. The contact line doesn’t exist in their heads, it exists only as a sad reality on the ground. It’s all up to (the civilians) for this all to end. If we took the humanitarian aspect as a starting point, that would be a good start for taking further steps. What we need now is the implementation of the political commitments made in Minsk in 2014.
Written by Julian Röpcke, political editor, Bild, translated by Euan MacDonald, editor, Kyiv Post. The original article (in German), published on June 1, 2017, can be found here.
