Reflecting Ukraine’s sense of isolation, confusion and worry over President-elect Donald Trump’s Jan. 20 move into the White House, the Ukrainian presidential administration hired the Washington-based public relations firm BGR to help build ties with the new president’s team.
It will take some effort, since Trump’s admiration for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his seeming approval of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea led many senior Ukrainian politicians to openly support Trump’s Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in the Nov. 8 presidential election.
Ukraine may now have to pay for taking sides.
While several foreign leaders have been invited to Trump’s inauguration, no top Ukrainian officials have received an invitation so far. Only Mykola Malomuzh, an adviser under disgraced former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, is reported to have been invited.
The contract with BGR, worth $50,000 per month according to Reuters, is the first of its kind to have been signed between a Washington-based firm and the current Ukrainian presidential administration, which seeks to retain America’s support for Ukraine in defending against Russia’s war.
The Trump administration could usher in a new era for U.S.-Ukraine relations – and possibly a sharp break from the close relationship that Ukraine enjoyed with the Barack Obama administration, when U.S. Vice President Joe Biden played a key role in fostering the bilateral relationship. Biden will make his final visit to Ukraine as vice president on Jan. 15.
Meanwhile, Trump’s relationship with Russia came under further scrutiny this week when a document allegedly written by an ex-British intelligence highlighted allegedly compromising material against Trump when he stayed at the Ritz-Carlton Hotel in Moscow in 2013. The document claimed that Russian secret services may have filmed Trump engaging in kinky sex acts with prostitutes to potentially blackmail the president-elect. Trump tweeted that the document was “fake news.”
Retired Marine Corps general James Mattis testifies before the Senate Armed Services Committee on his nomination to be the next secretary of defense in the Dirksen Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on January 12, 2017. / AFP PHOTO / Mandel Ngan
It won’t be same
Anton Sestritsyn, a political analyst and the acting director of the International Council in Support of Ukraine, described the contract with BGR as a positive but tardy development.
Sestritsyn said Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry now has much to do. It has to “do its homework and search for ways to connect with the new U.S. administration,” he said.
“The prolongation of U.S. sanctions against Russia fully depends on the Ukrainian government’s capacity to mend relations with the new U.S. president and his team.”
Mariana Betsa, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, told the Kyiv Post on Jan. 11 that the ministry would not comment Ukraine’s efforts to build ties with the new U.S. presidential administration until after Trump’s inauguration.
Brian Mefford, a U.S. political consultant working in Ukraine, told the Kyiv Post that “before (Poroshenko’s team) didn’t need the extra help, because U.S. President Barack Obama and Biden “took an active interest in Ukraine. They could always get Biden on the phone.”
But President Petro Poroshenko insulted and angered Trump during the campaign, Jason Smart, an international political consultant working for an anti-corruption nongovernment organization in Ukraine, told the Kyiv Post. Smart was referring to the “Black Ledger” – an alleged record of off-the-books payments made by Yanukovych’s Party of Regions. It included the name of Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort, who resigned shortly after the public release of the alleged multimillion-dollar payments to him.
“Trump doesn’t care what happens in Ukraine. He cares about what (they) did to him. About how (they) tried to stop him becoming president,” Smart said.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (R) and ExxonMobil Chairman and CEO Rex Tillerson (L) attend at the ceremony of the signing of an agreement between state-controlled Russian oil company Rosneft and ExxonMobil in the Black Sea port of Tuapse on June 15, 2012. AFP PHOTO/ RIA-NOVOSTI/POOL/MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV / AFP PHOTO / POOL / MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV
Trump’s circle
Trump has continued to praise Putin since the election, tweeting on Jan. 7 that “only stupid people or fools” would think that having a good relationship with Russia was a bad thing.
His nominees for posts in his cabinet and the presidential executive office comprises a mixture of Putin and Ukraine supporters, as well as those who have only hinted at where they stand.
General James Mattis has been put forward as secretary of defense. Mattis has said that Russia’s actions in Ukraine are “much more severe” and “more serious” than viewed by the U.S. or Europe. Also, there is “Russia hawk” Dan Coats, a nominee for director of national intelligence whom Russia banned in 2014, and John Kelly, nominee for secretary of homeland security, who has singled out Russia as a threat to the United States for its cold war tactics.
Less influential potential cabinet members who are pro-Ukraine are Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Ben Carson, and Secretary of Energy Rick Perry.
However, plenty of nominees for arguably more powerful positions have expressed their support for rebuilding ties with Russia and their general admiration of Putin and his style of leadership.
These include the nominee for U.S. secretary of state, Rex Tillerson – the former CEO of U.S oil company ExxonMobil. He is said to be personally close to Putin and has advocated the removal of U.S. sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine. Tillerson’s nomination is coming under resistance from U.S. Republican Senator Marco Rubio, who has said he has not decided whether to support Tillerson.
Republicans have a one-vote majority on the Senate Foreign Affairs Committee.
Other pro-Putin heavyweights are Ryan Zinke, nominee for secretary of the interior, and Senator Jeff Sessions as attorney general. Zinke has said that Putin is a stronger leader than outgoing U.S. President Barack Obama, and cited as Putin’s successes the illegal annexation of Crimea and spreading Russian influence in Ukraine. Sessions has also advocated mending diplomatic relations with Russia.
General Michael Flynn, Trump’s nominee for national security adviser, was reportedly paid to speak at Kremlin-controlled Russia Today’s 10th anniversary celebration dinner, where he sat next to Russian President Vladimir Putin. He has stated he wants the United States and Russia to be partners in fighting Islamic extremism. Flynn also appears regularly on Russia Today, a Kremlin-funded propaganda TV network.
Either way, the backbone of Trump’s far-right, “traditionalist” ideology is closely aligned with that of Putin. The masterminds behind the Trump credo are advisers Stephen Miller and Steve Bannon, who are both closely affiliated with the far-right website Breitbart News. The website is known for its pro-Putin and far-right editorial viewpoint.
Democrats are anti-Putin
There are only a few vocal Republican hawks on Russia, such as U.S. Senator John McCain of Arizona and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, according to Smart. The majority of Republicans are interested in free trade and fighting terrorism – two areas where Russia is viewed as useful, said Smart.
The Democrats will support Ukraine, but mostly “to punish Russia over the hacking,” said Smart. “Belief in Ukraine has almost disappeared in Washington.”
According to Smart, Poroshenko’s corruption and mismanagement are to blame for “Ukraine fatigue” in Washington, D.C. The U.S. has a “real belief” in the Baltic states, which are functional democratic countries, said Smart, but Ukraine has not proven itself to be a real partner.
“It’s not ‘Ukraine – our friend’, it’s ‘We should stop Russia,’” he said. “That’s not such a good relationship to have.”
Ukraine’s backtrack
In an interview on Nov. 18, after Trump’s election, Nazar Kholodnytsky, the chief of the special anti-corruption prosecutor’s office told Ukrainian news website Zn.ua that no evidence had been found by investigators to press charges against Manafort for allegedly receiving illegal payments from Yanukovych. He said investigators had been unable to prove the authenticity of his signature.
Kholodnytsky said that he was surprised by the decision of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) to publish the Party of Regions’ “Black Ledger” documents, and unhappy at the decision of other prominent Ukrainian politicians to spread the information.
NABU spokesperson Svitlana Olifira told the Kyiv Post on Jan. 11 that they are not investigating a separate case relating to Manafort, but a general pre-trial investigation into the “Black Ledger” case is continuing.
Ukraine ‘not a priority’
Peter Zalmayev, Eurasia Democracy Initiative director and international political expert, told the Kyiv Post that Trump’s rhetoric about Russia shows that in his foreign policy he would concentrate on relations with major states over smaller nations.
“Although Trump denied the fact that Russia has some damaging information on him and called the intelligence report published by the BuzzFeed disgraceful, if Trump starts surrendering Ukraine to Russia that will mean Russia indeed has something dangerous against him,” Zalmayev said.
As for whether Trump is going to fire back at Ukraine, after the Ukrainian government revealed theParty of Region’s alleged payments to Manafort, Zalmayev said that it is unlikely Trump will seek revenge, since Ukraine does not rank as one of his top priorities.
Room for hope?
Sestritsyn said that Ukraine’s leaders would have to cooperate with the new U.S administration, whether they like it or not. He also said that fears surrounding Tillerson might be misplaced, as in his new position he will have to make decisions in favor of U.S. interests.
During his testimony before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Jan. 11, Tillerson said that Russia “must bear responsibility for its actions” and said he favored a tougher response to Moscow for its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014.
Phil Griffin, a Kyiv-based American political consultant, told the Kyiv Post that Tillerson’s background at ExxonMobil should be seen as a plus as he’s “run a very large organization.” From what he’d “heard” Tillerson had led “very tough” negotiations with Russia in the past. Griffin further said that the Trump administration could use the current dip in Ukraine-U.S. relations to push Ukraine to carry out further reforms.
Tillerson also said on Jan. 11 that Russia is unpredictable and the United States should respect its ambitions and seek partnership to fight radical Islam.
Trump said as much during his press conference in Trump Tower in New York on Jan. 11.
“I don’t know that I’m going to get along with Vladimir Putin. I hope I do. But there’s a good chance I won’t. And if I don’t, do you honestly believe that Hillary (Clinton) would be tougher on Putin than me? Does anybody in this room really believe that? Give me a break,” Trump said.
The president-elect said that if Russians really had had some dirt on him they would have released it, and then said that if Putin liked him, it should be considered an asset, not a liability.
