WASHINGTON D.C. – Condemnation mounted from influential groups in Washington D.C. this week for Russia’s aggression against Ukrainian navy vessels in the Kerch Strait.
The critics emphasized the fact that they represented both of America’s main political parties – the Democrats and Republicans.
A Washington-based think tank, the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), which focuses on Central and Eastern Europe, published an open letter calling for the United States to raise the penalties for Russia because of the Kerch Strait incident last month.
Then Russian vessels, backed by helicopters and fighter jets, opened fire on two small armed Ukrainian naval vessels and an unarmed tug boat wounding six Ukrainian sailors. The vessels were seized by the Russians and the 23 crew remain in captivity.
The CEPA letter was signed by 46 recognized experts on the region including senior former U.S. officials, ambassadors, and a general – whose views contribute to shaping American political opinion.
They included former U.S. Ambassadors to Ukraine and Russia John Herbst and Alexander Vershbow, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark, and journalist and author Anne Applebaum.
American President Donald Trump has been criticized for his slow and soft response to the maritime incident – the first time Moscow’s military has openly attacked Ukraine. Previously the Kremlin denied that its regular forces have been engaged in a war in Ukraine, claiming the fighting was being waged by pro-Moscow separatists from Ukraine or by Russian volunteers, or even Russian soldiers on their vacations.
Increasing costs for Russian aggression
The letter’s signatories urged Trump to “swiftly raise the costs on Russia for its latest illegal actions — and by making visible preparations to impose even higher costs for future aggression.”
They advocate specific ways in which Washington should ratchet up sanctions including imposing new economic sanctions targeting Russian banks and other financial mechanisms and applying pressure to halt Moscow’s construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, aimed at nullifying Ukraine’s important role in Europe’s energy networks.
The letter’s writers also want the U.S. to increase military help for Ukraine – specifically by providing systems such as radars, coastal defense missiles, Intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, or ISR, equipment, and patrol boats for Ukraine’s navy.
A number of American officials and political analysts have cited the Nord Stream 2 project as part of Moscow’s aggression toward Ukraine. On Dec. 11 the U.S. House of Representatives approved a resolution opposing Nord Stream 2 and another condemning Moscow’s Azov sea aggression.
Another initiative to gather support across party lines to confront Russian aggression held an event on Dec. 12 focused on Moscow’s Kerch Strait attack.
The Transatlantic Democracy Working Group (TDWG), composed of some 65 former senior government officials, foreign policy and national security experts, was formed in the spring of this year to protect “transatlantic democratic institutions and principles in defense of collective security.”
One of its co-founders is Jeff Gedmin, former president of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and editor-in-chief of political magazine “The American Interest.” He introduced a discussion panel at the Brookings Institution think tank in Washington to explore practical ways to counter Russian aggression.
Takes two to tango
Gedmin said that historically America was very good at forgiving its enemies including its former Cold War adversary Russia. He pointed out how eager Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama had been to forge friendly relationships with Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
“The trouble is,” he said, “that it takes two to tango. And what did we learn in the last decade and a half? We learned that Russia would launch massive cyberattacks on Estonia, Russia would invade and occupy Georgia, Russia would invade and occupy Ukraine, Russia would launch disinformation campaigns that would make the Soviet Union proud.”
Former American Ambassador to Russia and NATO Alexander Vershbow said the naval attack on Nov. 25 had been part of a pattern of actions intended to destabilize Ukraine and portray it as a failed state unable to protect itself ahead of next year’s Ukrainian presidential election in the hope to bring “more pliable” leaders to power and challenge Ukraine’s aspirations to join the European Union and NATO.
He said Russia’s actions were also aimed at undermining America’s credibility “in terms of trying to defend the liberal, international order.”
Vershbow said that Western countries should ban Russian ships from, say European, ports if Moscow doesn’t free the Ukrainian sailors and vessels it seized last month.
Academic and Russia expert Alina Polyakova criticized the initial U.S. and E.U. reactions to Moscow’s Azov Sea aggression as “limp” and “almost comical” and continued the West’s reluctance to impose stern consequences for the Kremlin’s actions in Ukraine since 2014 and previously in Georgia, in 2008.
She said the tepid responses had convinced Moscow it could get away with almost anything. “This was an open aggression, it wasn’t hidden,” she said “because they don’t need to hide it… so now they know they can basically do whatever they want in that region without much of a response.”
Polyakova said that although the U.S. only became keenly aware about Russia’s disinformation attacks and cyber warfare following the 2016 American presidential elections, Ukraine had been a “test bed” for Moscow’s hybrid warfare techniques since 2004.
To counter Russian aggression America now has to craft a set of nasty consequences for Moscow that will have more of a deterrent impact than current sanctions, which have had a limited effect on curbing Kremlin actions.
Cyber tactics against the Kremlin
Bill Kristol, a political analyst and editor-at-large of conservative publication “The Weekly Standard,” said that the response to the Kremlin’s aggression in Ukraine does not necessarily have to be applied in Ukraine but that the U.S. should examine “what is the whole arsenal we have at our disposal to make Putin’s life miserable?” He suggested one method would be to use covert cyber methods to throw into disarray the billions of dollars of funds that Putin and his cronies have stolen from their own state.
The annual meeting of the U.S.-Ukraine Business Council, held at the Metropolitan Club in Washington on Dec. 12, provided a forum for current senior American officials to voice support for Ukraine.
Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Eastern Europe George Kent, said that the Azov aggression had put Ukraine on the agenda for the recent G20 Conference in Argentina of the world’s wealthiest nations and Trump had cancelled a meeting with Putin because of Russia’s refusal to release the Ukrainian ships and captive sailors. The issue also figured at a conference of NATO foreign ministers last week, he said.
He said Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo expect America’s European allies to do more on European security “and we will be there with them supporting Ukraine in countering Russian aggression. And this will be an issue that will play out in the weeks and months to come. Clearly Russia continues to violate international law as it did when it seized the (Ukrainian) ships.”
Colin Cleary, director for energy diplomacy at the State Department, also tied the Russian naval aggression to the Nord Stream 2 project.
“The Kerch Strait incident makes clear the arguments we are all familiar with about why Nord Stream is a danger to European energy security,” he said. “The two fundamental things are, of course, the severe damage it does to Ukraine, the severe danger it threatens to larger European energy security.”
Orest Deychakivsky, an expert on American relations with Ukraine and Russia and former policy adviser at the U.S. Helsinki Commission [on security and cooperation in Europe] said: “I do think there’s some momentum building for stronger action in support of Ukraine following Russia’s aggression in the Azov Sea.”
Deychakivsky said Congress had passed several resolutions calling for stricter sanctions and penalties for Russia’s violations of the rules-based international order. He expected Congress to continue backing Ukraine and press the white House to confront the Kremlin in an impactful way.
“We have a president whose actions are difficult to predict but his national security apparatus by and large is very supportive of Ukraine as is the U.S. Congress on a bipartisan basis,” he said. “So there is that momentum and we’ll see how it manifests itself.”
