You're reading: Canada ‘Planning for Multiple Contingencies’ as Ukraine Faces Possible Full-Scale Russian Invasion

A round-up of this week’s developments from Ottawa

The Canadian government is “extremely concerned with the rising aggression, aggressive moves by Russia against the Ukrainian people, against Ukraine,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said at a news conference in Ottawa on Jan. 19.

“As an ally and friend to Ukraine, we will be there and continue to be there to support them and to work diplomatically with all of our allies around the world to encourage and insist that Russia not continue its escalation and threats of violence.”

Without explaining “operational details,” he said that Canada is “planning for multiple contingencies” in terms of extricating diplomatic and military personnel from Ukraine.

CBC News, Canada’s public broadcaster, reported on Jan. 18 that plans have been drawn up to evacuate the 200-member Canadian Armed Forces’ [CAF’s] Operation UNIFIER mission in which military trainers are spread out over 13 different locations in Ukraine.

Also that day, Canadian private broadcaster, Global News, reported that a small contingent from the Canadian Special Operations Regiment has been deployed to Ukraine as “part of an attempt by NATO allies to deter Russian aggression,” according to sources.

The unit would reportedly assist with the evacuation of Canadian diplomatic personnel.

A Royal Canadian Navy frigate reportedly set sail for the Mediterranean and Black Sea as part of Canada’s NATO commitments.

Meanwhile in Kyiv, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly said at a joint news conference with her Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, on Jan.18 that Canada has heard Ukraine’s requests for lethal and non-lethal military gear “loud and clear.”

“Many of the officials here have reiterated this demand. We know that it is important to play our part,” she said. “Therefore, we are looking at our options and will take a decision in a timely manner.”

Joly provided Trudeau and key members of his cabinet an update on her visit to Ukraine, which included a meeting on on Jan. 19 with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

In a readout of that meeting released Trudeau’s office, the prime minister and his ministers, which included Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, a Ukrainian Canadian, “raised the need to find a peaceful solution through dialogue.”

Prime Minister Trudeau emphasized that any further military incursion into Ukraine would have serious consequences, including coordinated sanctions.

Last week, Canadian Official Opposition Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole released a statement calling on the Trudeau government to extend and expand Operation Unifier, which is scheduled to conclude at the end of March; restore the provision of real-time satellite imagery that former prime minister Stephen Harper’s Conservative government introduced in 2015 but which the Liberals – following their electoral victory that year – ended in 2016; use Magnitsky sanctions “against those responsible for Russian aggression against Ukraine;” and provide Ukraine with “lethal defensive weapons.”

O’Toole said that Canada must reject the “capitulation proposals put forward by Russia and President [Vladimir] Putin.”

The Russian Federation has warned that it will take “military-technical measures” if NATO does not guarantee Ukraine will not become a member.

“Canada and its allies must demonstrate resolve when dealing with authoritarian governments, especially those such as Russia, which has violated international law by seizing Crimea, used mercenaries and special forces to invade and threaten the Donbas region of Ukraine, and collaborate with Syria’s government forces to kill thousands of civilians, including children, during the Syrian civil war,” wrote former Canadian defense minister David Collenette and chair of the NATO Association of Canada, and former Canadian Conservative senator Hugh Segal, former chair of the Standing Senate Committee on Foreign Affairs, in an op-ed in Canada’s Globe and Mail newspaper.

They said the Canadian government should join its allies “in immediately planning and implementing steps that would facilitate tough financial, trade and personal sanctions against Russia if it doesn’t withdraw its aggressive deployments from Ukraine’s borders.”

In an interview with The Globe and Mail, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olga Stefanishyna said that her country is “preparing for the military scenario.”

She said that Russian diplomats have also left Ukraine under an order from Russia’s Foreign Affairs Ministry – a claim a ministry spokesperson dismissed as Ukrainian disinformation.

Stefanishyna said she hopes Canada will follow the lead of its major allies.

This week, Britain’s Royal Air Force delivered short-range, anti-tank missiles to Ukraine. On Wednesday, U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration announced that it was providing US$200 million in additional aid to Ukraine as Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in Kyiv for meetings with Zelensky and other senior Ukrainian officials.

Blinken reportedly told U.S. embassy staff in Kyiv that Moscow has plans in place to increase its military force, estimated at about 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border, “on very short notice.”

However, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration told The Globe that “a significant amount” of NATO countries are wary of providing Ukraine with military assistance for fear of “irritatingRussia.”

Last month, Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov told The Globe that his country particularly needs anti-aircraft equipment.

Meanwhile, a coalition of Canadian peace groups and civil society organizations, which include the Canadian Foreign Policy Institute and the Winnipeg branch of the Association of United Ukrainian Canadians, called on the Trudeau government “to take immediate steps to de-escalate and demilitarize the conflict, and to engage diplomatically in long-term peace and security with Russia, Ukraine and throughout Eastern Europe.”

Among their demands: that Canada “stop the export of all lethal and non-lethal military goods from Canada to Ukraine; prevent the opening of a Canadian weapons company in Ukraine; and end all support for it by the Canadian Commercial Corporation, a federal agency.”

The groups also want Operation UNIFIER to end, and they oppose Ukraine’s membership in NATO.

Russia has publicly stated that NATO’s militarization of Eastern Europe is a direct threat to its security and the membership of Ukraine in the military alliance is a ‘red line’ that cannot be crossed,

said the coalition. “Canada with its NATO allies are engaged in a dangerous and destabilizing hybrid war against Russia that risks nuclear weapons use.”

“Canada and Ukraine should be neutral countries with an independent foreign policy of non-aggression and non-interference.”

In a videoconference with Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov this week, Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand said she “been engaged with her NATO counterparts, as well as with other partner nations, regarding the need for the international community to send a clear message to Russia that any further military incursion in Ukraine would have severe consequences and costs,” according to a readout released on Wednesday from the Canadian Department of National Defense.