Ukraine is rapidly hurtling toward the worst-case pandemic scenario and 20,000 people could die from COVID-19 by the end of the year, according to a new report.
Published by the Kyiv School of Economics on Oct. 15, the study paints a frightening picture of the next 2.5 months.
As countries around the world face their second wave of COVID-19, Ukraine is still only in its first, researchers say. It is among the countries with the most difficult situations.
According to their modeling, if the country does not impose a strict quarantine, the daily number of newly diagnosed patients may reach 10,000 in November, a dangerous scenario that would place Ukraine’s health care system under unprecedented strain.
“The (medical) system will only survive if strict quarantine restrictions are imposed,” the report states.
Strengthened quarantine
As of Oct. 16, Ukraine has registered 5,992 new COVID-19 cases — a record since the start of the pandemic in the country. Since September, the daily number of new cases has increased sharply and Ukraine surpassed 5,000 total deaths from COVID-19 on Oct. 12.
In the past 24 hours, the largest numbers of new cases have been recorded in Kharkiv Oblast (544), Odesa Oblast (502), the city of Kyiv (455), Dnipro Oblast (423) and Khmelnytskyi Oblast (414).
The situation could become critical for the medical system in these regions over the next two weeks, experts warn.
The Cabinet of Ministers has already extended the country’s quarantine restrictions until Dec. 31 due to the upsurge in coronavirus cases.
Starting on Oct. 19, 68 Ukrainian cities and regions will enter the “red zone” of COVID-19 risk, the highest level of quarantine where restrictions are the most severe. The cities include oblast capitals like Chernivtsi, Khmelnytskyi, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Severodonetsk, Poltava, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk and Ternopil.
In the red zone, the authorities can shut down public transport, schools, shopping malls, restaurants and more.
Experts from the Kyiv School of Economics believe it is crucial to introduce intense quarantine restrictions in areas severely affected by the virus.
“Comprehensive quarantine restrictions should be introduced in those areas, districts or cities where we observe an active increase in morbidity in the dynamics,” the experts wrote in their report.
On Oct. 12, Kyiv moved from the “yellow” to the “orange” quarantine zone due to the growing COVID-19 infection rate and local hospitals becoming increasingly overburdened. The measures will even be stricter than required by the orange zone due to the gravity of the situation in the capital.
In Kyiv, gyms and cultural establishments will be required to close, while restaurants will not be allowed to work past 10 p.m. Mass events will be canceled until the epidemiological situation improves.
It is now forbidden to hold mass events of over 50 people in “green zone” regions, over 30 people in “yellow zone” regions and over 20 people in the “orange zone.” In all these zones, participants must be at least 1.5 meters apart.
Despite these measures, Ukraine’s coronavirus response is far from comprehensive. Although masks are required in public transport and stores, masking is seldom enforced.
Additionally, the government has been wary of harming the economy, forswearing a second lockdown and making concessions to businesses that objected to onerous quarantine measures.
Overcrowded hospitals
Ukraine expects to be conducting at least 50,000 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests for COVID-19 a day by the beginning of December, according to Health Minister Maksym Stepanov.
But according to the Kyiv School of Economics report, that won’t be enough. Rather, Ukraine needs to be conducting at least 100,000 PCR tests a day to accurately monitor the epidemiological situation in the country.
The researchers also call on Ukraine to get hospitals ready to face their peak workload, to prepare additional beds equipped with ventilators and to create a reserve of mobile teams that include doctors and junior medical staff throughout the country.
“This will allow for the redeployment of health workers to those regions where there will be the greatest shortage of staff,” they wrote.
In recent days, Health Minister Stepanov has stressed that the country is running out of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients.
On Oct. 12, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky ordered the minister to prepare to deploy temporary emergency hospitals in Kyiv, Odesa and Mariupol in the event that current medical facilities become overcrowded.
Ukraine currently has a total of 52,000 beds for COVID-19 patients. Ukrainian hospitals cannot accept any more coronavirus patients than this and still treat people with other medical issues.
